…to guarantee at least one pellet hits the clay.
So let me explain. I’ve been reading “Sporting Shotgun Performance” by Dr AC Jones. In one of the chapters he addresses the question of how dense does the pattern need to be to guarantee that at least one pellet strikes the clay. What is presented he is my understanding of his work.
We recognize that patterns are not uniform - 100 pellets in 100 square inches does not give 1 pellet in each square inch. It’s random and close enough to a Gaussian distribution that standard probability calculations can be applied.
Dr Jones defines pellet density as the number of pellets per target area. For trap, it’s 5.25 square inches based on the size of clay and the angle (vertical) at which it is thrown. So a pellet density of 1 would be 1 pellet per every 5.25 square inches.
To guarantee (99% +) that one or more pellets strike the clay, the pellet density needs to be 5 or more. That density level also will result in smoked targets. For example, for pellet densities of 5 and 6, the probability of have 5 or more pellets strike the clay are 56% and 71%, respectively. I don’t know how many pellets are needed to smoke a target, but I suspect 5 or more will do it.
At the other end of the scale, a pellet density of 1 would only result in a strike 63% of the time. So, no you can’t chip your way to a 25. Kind of like flipping a coin 25 times and getting heads 25 times in a row.
So let me explain. I’ve been reading “Sporting Shotgun Performance” by Dr AC Jones. In one of the chapters he addresses the question of how dense does the pattern need to be to guarantee that at least one pellet strikes the clay. What is presented he is my understanding of his work.
We recognize that patterns are not uniform - 100 pellets in 100 square inches does not give 1 pellet in each square inch. It’s random and close enough to a Gaussian distribution that standard probability calculations can be applied.
Dr Jones defines pellet density as the number of pellets per target area. For trap, it’s 5.25 square inches based on the size of clay and the angle (vertical) at which it is thrown. So a pellet density of 1 would be 1 pellet per every 5.25 square inches.
To guarantee (99% +) that one or more pellets strike the clay, the pellet density needs to be 5 or more. That density level also will result in smoked targets. For example, for pellet densities of 5 and 6, the probability of have 5 or more pellets strike the clay are 56% and 71%, respectively. I don’t know how many pellets are needed to smoke a target, but I suspect 5 or more will do it.
At the other end of the scale, a pellet density of 1 would only result in a strike 63% of the time. So, no you can’t chip your way to a 25. Kind of like flipping a coin 25 times and getting heads 25 times in a row.
