Hang in there Jeff. I have it on good authority that the next load we order will be 26.50 for West Coast Magnum. It will take a couple of weeks for that to happen. If we buy enough we can get it delivered locally for that price.
Jerry, No, I'm with Cray on this one. Not only is the cost of raw lead down, (53 cents today), so is the cost of transportation. National average for gasoline is under 2 bucks a gallon now. A large distributor in NY dropped their shot price 4 bucks a bag over the weekend. Bottom line is that we'll see it cheaper one of these days some time soon. They've dragged their feet on this lead shot issue far, far too long. Diesel isn't 5 bucks a gallon anymore. Can't use that as an excuse. The shot that sits on Gander Mountain's shelves at $50 - $60 a bag can rot for all we care. Nobody's going to buy any at that price. Tuff $hit. $20 a bag could happen.
Jon, I agree 100%. When the price of oil per barrel went up, they raised the price of gas rightaway. When it went down, the price per gal. went down slowly.
We're paying $2.35 a gal. in Western N.Y. St. Louis is $1.48. The same is happening to the price of shot per bag. Thanks for your support! Cray
Hey I hope you guys are right but let's do a little math. Suppose you could get lead at the spot price of $.54. That means in a 25# bag there is $13.50 in raw lead. I don't know how manufacturers acquire lead so my math may be wrong but for arguments sake I'll go with raw lead.
Now you must get that lead to the manufacturer. The manufacturer has to process it, add antimony to it, and then drop it. Plenty of expensive energy consumed there so off the lead goes to the distributor by truck. Fuel is cheaper now but certainly not to former levels, especially diesel.
Now the distributor has to get it to the retailer and that costs more money. Of course everyone deserves a profit so Even though the raw material is dropping the overall production and transportation price is higher than it was historically.
I think, assuming the spot price doesn't change significantly we MIGHT see lead in the $22 to $25 range. That would seem to be realistic and I'd jump on it at that price.
Regardless what you think Cray is right. Transportation has dropped considerably. It just has not showed up yet in deliverly. By Jan. 09 it probably will be anywhere between 16 and 18 dollars. By that time many will not be able to afford that. B12
Gentlemen, prices never drop as fast as they rise. Rockets and feathers if I remember my Econ 110 professor from back at my Widener univ. days.
There a bunch empirical literature showing that prices respond asymmetrically to cost changes in many markets, rising faster than falling.
Asymmetrical price adjustments is when store owners decrease their prices much slower than they raise them because we people will accept a few cents knocked off every couple of weeks. We will also accept spikes because we "need" the commodity, we'll make due and they know it. We also are happy when they drop a few cents each week thinking we are getting a deal when we are really getting screwed. Its free market economy at its finest. Unless the Government gets involved and controls and caps the spikes.
Could they drop the prices as fast as they rise? Sure.
Would you if you could drop them little by little and reap the benefits of it. You damned right. If you are looking to make money you will.
Prices will come down slowly, but as soon as oil spikes for what ever reason, we are back where we were.
What I have come to believe is this in regards to shot prices: If you can live with and are happy with 26 a bag, its a good deal. I remember when it was 40-50 and we all were saying how 26 a bag was GREAT and how we all would buy tons of the shit for 26. Now its here and we want it cheaper because lead is so low, gas is low, etc...
I think 26 is a good deal and I can afford to pay 26 a bag compared to the last time I bought shot. I also said when it came down under 30 I was going to buy a bunch. i saved my nickels and dimes, so its time to buy.
If it continues to drop, I will buy even more, but I am stocking up so when the crap hits the fan again, I can still shoot the amount I want to.
Asymmetrical Price Adjustment. Live it, learn it, understand it. Its how the free market economy works.
Thanks for the prices Jerry, I will be in touch. Jeff
Gentlemen, With the way the government is printing $$ and giving it away, the cost of shot and everything might require 4 times the normal price for one bag. The *hits going to hit the wall in the next 6 months.