Trapshooters Forum banner
1 - 20 of 44 Posts

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
1,313 Posts
Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Pandemic created huge shortage, manufacturers double-up production. High prices and shortages caused buying habits to change. Over production causes prices to lower? Maybe?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
34,299 Posts
Decades ago, warehousing of goods and materials almost ceased to exist when “JIT“ came along. It was replaced with the concept of ordering stock to arrive “just in time” of keep supply levels in tune with demand. Warehouses were replaced with “distribution centers” to resupply stores of chains and local businesses with smaller supply levels because transportation could fill orders in 2-3 days instead of weeks as before.

Now I have been retired for over 20 years from the transportation industry, but I doubt the JIT concept has been or will be abandoned even with the driver storage. I could be wrong. I just don’t see “buyers” of retail outlets who order stock to fill the shelves be changing their ordering and buying habits because of the supply chain disruption we currently have. The problem is not long term yet.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,958 Posts
I believe @Rick Barker is spot on, and factor in one thing he left out, INVENTORY TAX. Stock less, pay less.
Exactly.

There won't be a "glut", in ammo, because the costs remain the same or higher, and the manufacturers have been at max capacity for a couple of years.

Step one in your quandary is to look at other industries how they handle shortages of the materials needed to make their product. Shortages are across the board, not just limited to ammo.

For instance, look at the auto industry. They can't finish vehicles, so what do they do? They furlough plants and workers of the vehicles they can't finish and sell, they don't keep cranking them out with the hope that the chips will show up.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
630 Posts
Winter usually means less demand. Local large gun shop has pallets at $11+ a box and they are selling but not flying out the door. Hoarders may have reached their limit at that price. All clay shooting goes down in the winter in at least half the country, so manufacturing inventory will creep up. That’s probably why rebates used to be offered in the spring.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
6,791 Posts
We have a japanese car plant in our town. They were huge on JIT, and would not even let truckers on their lot until the scheduled unloading time. For the last couple years, even they could not make JIT work. A month ago they lobbied for tax abatement because they "have need to build a large warehouse".

At the Alcoa plant, some pencil neck decided that plant maintenance had to operate JIT. They scraped everything that had been in a large store house. Efficient!!! but that only lasted about 3 weeks, until the first crane went down. He failed to recognize that replacement parts for pre WWII era EC&M overhead trolley cranes are not available with a simple phone call. And that plant has 20 of them.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,898 Posts
Rick and Ken c hit the nail on the head. I worked in the refineries and ran a lot of shutdowns. The warehouses in them carried just barely enough to take care of maintenance. Any inventory in them was considered capital and was taxed as such. Anything needed for shutdowns was ordered well in advance during pre job planning and you better thi k of everything because chances were when you went to the warehouse they either wouldn't have it or not enough of said item. Jit was the standard and maintenance was run on acceptable risk of failure. I'm glad I'm retired!!!
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
57 Posts
Exactly.

There won't be a "glut", in ammo, because the costs remain the same or higher, and the manufacturers have been at max capacity for a couple of years.

Step one in your quandary is to look at other industries how they handle shortages of the materials needed to make their product. Shortages are across the board, not just limited to ammo.

For instance, look at the auto industry. They can't finish vehicles, so what do they do? They furlough plants and workers of the vehicles they can't finish and sell, they don't keep cranking them out with the hope that the chips will show up.
You're partially correct in regards to the auto industry. Plants have been shut down or running reduced capacity due to the semiconductor shortage. But they are still "building shy" without semiconductors and parking the almost-finished vehicles until they can get retrofitted with the missing components. There are lots, rail yards, vacant fields, etc. close to assembly plants for all the Big Three that are overflowing with these "shy" vehicles. GM has even announced that the majority of the 2022 lineup will not have the heated steering wheel or heated seats options available (they're offering the opportunity to get retrofitted when the semiconductors are available). All this to say that this shift in manufacturing across the board is permanent and who knows what it'll look like when the dust settles. The only thing that we do know is that costs are up, prices increased accordingly and people are still buying up everything at the higher prices. I think the days of regularly seeing $5/box for say Top Guns or Gun Clubs are behind us.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
11,935 Posts
I just shot a 125 rounds of shells yesterday at $3.50 a box. They were 410 bore reloads of mine. With current reloading prices, I will not be able to replace them for that though. sigh.

A quick check tells me my new 410 price will be 5 bucks a box w/ hull wear factored in. break em all Jeff
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,096 Posts
Vista Outdoors Actions Sports, parent company of Federal Ammunition and Remington shotgun shells along with several other gun-sports related companies, reported 3rd quarter 2021 earnings of $62 million four times its earnings of a year ago.

Yet, shotgun shells were, and are, in short supply for the year.

The logical financial conclusion is they are charging more for their products while not being able to increase production, claiming it is maxed out.

Fourth quarter sales are forecast at $510-530 million.

IMHO I don`t see a trend towards cheaper per-box shotgun shells.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
34,299 Posts
Just watch prices at the gasoline pump for future economic forecast. We went from energy independence and back to dependence in a matter days in January of this year. We will be that way for another 3 years or longer. Even if we get to drilling again, it can take years to get back to gas prices like we did a year ago. With less oil to meet demand, you not only have higher gasoline, diesel and heating oil prices you have higher prices for byproducts such as plastics which happen to be used in shells and wads in shot shell production and reloading. At least we don’t have that orange man problem anymore, correct?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
409 Posts
A neighbor/friend of mine is a rep for Vista Outdoors, so I think this is accurate. He told me Bi-Mart has received a large order of topguns for Black Friday sales, but at a higher price. So, just how many, and at what price? He didn't say. We should get some idea where this price/availability thing is heading Friday as this would be new production from Federal.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,958 Posts
The logical financial conclusion is they are charging more for their products while not being able to increase production, claiming it is maxed out.
Not only is it illogical, it is also incorrect.

The small increase from the manufacturers were announced, the big jump in price is occurring after it leaves the factories.

Retail suppliers are raising the prices on what they can get, to make up the sales volume they are losing on the things they can't get.

That's business, then add to that the scum bags trying to make a quick buck, there you have it.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
409 Posts
A neighbor/friend of mine is a rep for Vista Outdoors, so I think this is accurate. He told me Bi-Mart has received a large order of topguns for Black Friday sales, but at a higher price. So, just how many, and at what price? He didn't say. We should get some idea where this price/availability thing is heading Friday as this would be new production from Federal.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
242 Posts
It depends on how your line and your help is set up. I was told that some Japanese auto companies use the same engineering group and they rotate between each of their vehicle lines for new model design. The same could be true for the employees at the ammo plants by rotating a set group of employees accross different equipment lines. 100% employee utilization. That would leave some lines dormant until the pre-high demand season came up then they concentrated on say 30-06 or slug shell lines pre-deer season and say target shot shells midwinter in anticipation of summer trap season. If you have an increased demand in trap loads you just let the line run more hours.

If you had a small line that you ran 100% of the time and you produced the same amount throughout the year say 7.5 1200 fps 1-1/8 loads, what you didnt sell say during winter you warehoused or your distributors bought and warehoused you would have a very high machine utilization but no room for increased output if the demand went up. If the demand is low then you have to lay off people. If people dont show up you dont have anyway to recapture that lost production except having your Foreman running around yelling at everyone and trying to run the machines 26 hours a day at 110% until some gets hurt or killed.

I think the ammo companies got behind because they didnt have people because everybody stopped showing up. They thought they had or could get the Wuhan and or they got the free money from the government and sat home and smoked dope and drank until they got tired of puking in bed ever night.
 
1 - 20 of 44 Posts
Top