Interesting pictures, Phil; thanks for putting them up. I must say I'm surprised at what you are calling reading the breaks. I'd always thought of it as waiting until a target is poorly broken and making my call based on what happens then. I see now, however, that you are doing it on really hard breaks.
Here's what I see.
Bird one, smoked.
(edit here when I extracted two more frames) But then bird two, the slow motion one.
1. Starting at time stamp 13, the frame three before it breaks and flies apart, here's what I see. Maybe a single pellet hitting dead center, but also what looks to me like the pellet cloud _above_ the bird. Left or right is hard to tell since we don't know what angle the shot is coming from, but it sure looks like the shot is above the bird and I'd say coming from the right, or so it seems.
2. The next frame, the one two before it breaks, appears to me to be a bird surrounded by pellets, with plenty still above.
3. In the next frame the bird is a little ball of black; hard to be sure about where the pellets are, but maybe they look like they are still basically all around it. Do I have this and the previous one correct? If so, I can't see your diagnosis, low and right, can be true. Have I got it wrong?
4. The bird flies away in pieces. the big ones going mostly left, and up some as well.
Neil