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You may hold off on buying a lot of Shot

Discussion in 'Uncategorized Threads' started by Big Al 29, Mar 6, 2007.

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  1. Big Al 29

    Big Al 29 TS Member

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    I found this to be interesting. Towards the bottom is the speculation about Lead:

    Mineral Prices to Rise Before Fall, Says Survey(2007-2-1)

    February 1, 2007

    FORECASTS for commodity prices have edged higher amid expectations of a US downturn, an Access Economics report shows.

    Despite warnings from Treasury that the mining boom is nearing an end, the December-quarter Minerals Monitor report suggests iron ore, gold, oil, platinum and uranium will continue to rise over the next year before falling away.

    The report, which gives an overview of the world economy and the mineral price forecasts of 13 leading commodities analysts, predicts falls in lead, zinc, cobalt, nickel and copper over the next 2½ years.

    It says the commodity price surge seen since 2003 will "take a breather" as the supply of minerals catches up with strong demand from growing economies such as China.

    "A US slowdown poses less risk to commodity demand than in times past," the report says. "Although China is set to slow from here, it and other commodity-hungry nations will still drive industrial commodity demand forward at a good pace.

    "Inventories are slowly being rebuilt for the likes of oil and copper and there is increasing evidence that 2007 and 2008 will see supply lift solidly, especially for some key base metals."

    The report says that while iron ore prices are still rising, the consensus view of analysts surveyed is that prices will fall beyond 2009.

    "The panel sees the coming fall in minerals prices as a slow burn, with most minerals expected to still be overvalued in June 2009 when compared to their long-term sustainable price."

    The report says lead is now the most overvalued mineral and predicts its price will fall by 51 per cent over the forecast period of March this year to June 2009. "This large fall is largely due to the 38 per cent rise in lead prices in the December quarter," it says.

    Zinc will drop by almost 50 per cent by mid-2009, cobalt will drop 46 per cent, nickel will fall almost 45 per cent and copper will dive 44 per cent. Price falls of more than 20 per cent are also expected for tin, coal, aluminium, silver, uranium and zircon. Rises are tipped for ilmenite (12 per cent) and rutile (5 per cent).

    The report also provides strong upward revisions to earlier forecasts on oil, in light of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries cutting production [The Age News].
     
  2. skeet_man

    skeet_man Well-Known Member

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    that is EXCELLENT news,,,now lets keep our fingers crossed it comes true
     
  3. Beancounter

    Beancounter TS Member

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    the problem will be the green policies and the electric cars (batteries). Unless new mines come on line, demand will continue to outstrip supply.
     
  4. Mac V

    Mac V Guest

    <blockquote><I>"that is EXCELLENT news,,,now lets keep our fingers crossed it comes true"</I></blockquote>
    It's not news...it's speculation...comforting speculation to be sure but still speculation.
    <blockquote><I>"the problem will be the green policies and the electric cars (batteries). Unless new mines come on line, demand will continue to outstrip supply."</I></blockquote>
    I wouldn't sweat batteries for electric cars. Lead / acid batteries are prehistoric technology as far as these are concerned...too heavy, too bulky, too slow to recharge. Expect electric cars to use lithium-ion cells and their successors.

    Mike
     
  5. Shooting Coach

    Shooting Coach Well-Known Member

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    The Japs have a test electic car that will do 0-100 in FOUR SECONDS. It will go over 250 MPH. At top speed, it sounds like an artillery round as it goes by. It has lithium-ion batteries. A gasoline powered vehicle with similar performance costs almost $2MILLION. The electic was about $300K.

    It is a matter of time for the alternative machines to become mainstream. As soon as prices get to where the average bear can afford them, they will be in showrooms.

    I sure am glad I bought three tons of shot last fall!! (WHEW)

    I imagine, if shot does go down, that many folks will be buying mass quantities.
     
  6. mono1393

    mono1393 Member

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    There is a gentlemen (trapshooter) in our little town developing a "hydrogen" fueled car. He is working on a system to meter the hydrogen to the engine. He gets about 250 miles to a cup of water.
    I hope the oil companies don't find him and "snuff" him. This could be major. He said that the combustion engine performs better than using gasoline, and there is absolutely no emissions other that a litter water from the exhaust. WOW!
     
  7. Texas Ton

    Texas Ton TS Member

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    Lead acid batteries are a long ways away from being replaced with LI or similar, it isn't that the tech isn't there, the affordability isn't there. As long as it is cheaper to use lead in batteries, that's what will happen.

    Chevrolet says battery tech will take at least til 2010-12 to catch up, and that includes the steady rise in cost of lead batteries.

    I also hope it happens soon, but I'm not counting on it.
     
  8. Johnny

    Johnny Well-Known Member

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    texas ton is right, lead acid batteries are going to be with us for a while. The economy of India is right on the heels of China. There are a lot of Indians and they all want a car. Those two countries are going to suck up resources like a black hole. A 51% drop in two years would take a world wide recession or worse.

    I've read it takes 10yrs to bring a lead mine on line in the country.
     
  9. 682LINY

    682LINY Member

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    MONO,,,,they wont snuff him ,,,Just buy him out,,,,there will not be any real efective electric technology released until the day the last drop of oil is pumped from the ground,,,than all the manufacturs will suddenly have the answer,,,they mite have it now ,,,it just will not intoduced until the oil companys have made maxumuin profits from current technology,,,,why kill the golden gosse,,,oil industury makes money pumping oil and will not stop till its gone
     
  10. hmb

    hmb Well-Known Member

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    Supply and demand. There is very little supply and a great demand. The price ain't coming down. HMB
     
  11. Roger IL

    Roger IL TS Member

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    Big Al 29,I'll hold your beer while we wait............Roger
     
  12. Johnny

    Johnny Well-Known Member

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    Roger, might as well pull up a chair too.
     
  13. timb99

    timb99 Well-Known Member

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    mono1393,

    Don't hold your breath.

    And hydrogen burning engines DO pollute, just not CO or CO2. They do emit some oxides of nitrogen (aka NOx) in addition to the water vapor.

    And exactly HOW do you get from a cup of water to hydrogen used for combustion? That takes energy fellas. It doesn't happen magically.
     
  14. Michael Jobe

    Michael Jobe TS Member

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    Next month will be the beginning of my 3rd year of shooting trap. Most of the past two years I've heard, "The price of lead is supposed to drop in four to six months". Well, during that two years shot has gone from $17 to $26 a bag, and it's still climbing. I say stock up on as much shooting supplies as you can now, because the price of everything in this world is going to keep on going up.

    Michael
     
  15. dverna

    dverna Active Member

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    Slick13,
    I agree. A bunch of guys ribbed me about when I stocked up at $22.50 a bag.

    Anyone who believes prices will drop significantly in the short term (next 6 -12 months) is taking a risk. My bet is it lead will not go down in price and I am planning on buying more at the Great Lakes Grand. The stuff does not "go bad".

    Don
     
  16. KEYBEAR

    KEYBEAR Active Member

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    How soon do you really think you will see the price come down ? I would say maybe 12 to 14 months or more . And when or if the price comes down is will not come down to the old price . I think we should get set for 16 to 18 dollar shot if it comes down at all . Remember 23 and 24 dollar shot has to work it,s way out first .

    KEYBEAR
     
  17. Johnny

    Johnny Well-Known Member

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    Keybear, your last sentence is not correct. Shot is like gasoline. The price can change daily. If it goes down the dealer gets stuck no matter what he paid for it.
     
  18. KEYBEAR

    KEYBEAR Active Member

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    johnny Do you really think if lead goes down to ten cents That you will buy shot the next day for much less then today . What I said is high price lead (ie shot) will be with us untill the stock is sold . Dealers are not nor will not pay 23.00 for a bag of shot monday and sell the same shot Friday for 20.00 because lead went down 10 cents in the market same for loaded shells . Most small dealers are not stocking any Shot and if they do it,s 20 bags or less hoping it goes down a little next week or next year .

    Sorry KEYBEAR
     
  19. School Teacher

    School Teacher Well-Known Member

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    I think that, in general, commodity prices tend to go up quickly due to fear and speculation and then recede slowly due to the investment in inventory that persons who actually take title to commodity make.

    That said, anytime you have a significant price rise, more supply tends to come to market because marginal producers become profitable. This is the old fashioned law of supply and demand.

    I would hope that somewhere, somehow, more lead is being mined instead of being reclaimed from old car batteries and other scrap sources. To my way of thinking, the owners of the resource, at some price level, will rush to mine it to realize the sale proceeds before the price drops.

    If the price of lead were to get foolish, say like the price of silver, then it might make sense to ban all lead from registered trapshooting and require an alternative metal like steel.

    Just my $0.02.
     
  20. candyman

    candyman TS Member

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