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What will be price of shot in July? Dec?- Opinions

Discussion in 'Shooting Related Threads' started by rdf59, Apr 9, 2011.

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  1. rdf59

    rdf59 Member

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    I've seen all sorts of opinions on the future price of shot, but many of them do not seem to have a studied basis behind the opinions.

    Does anyone have any research from commodities companies, brokerage companies, your business that may offer a studied approach to the direction of lead?

    Commodities such as copper are expected to keep climbing, after a small dip, to record levels. The research I've seen indicates lead is likely to see a small dip while demand catches up with supply and then continue a long term rise.

    Several distributors are expecting price increases in shot to about $41 a bag.

    I would appreciate getting some knowledgeable input on possible prices.

    Thanks rdf
     
  2. larryjk

    larryjk Member

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    I used to follow the lead market from London, but the local paper quit carrying the daily price. What is the current price of a metric ton on the market? What is driving the price of lead other than commodity speculation?
     
  3. Tailbuster

    Tailbuster TS Member

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    I'll take a shot at trying to help answer the question but understand that what you are asking is really in the realm of commodities futures trading and is impossible to answer. You can only make an educated guess.

    The price of commodities, like lead, are dependent on many things and you cannot know what the price is really going to be 6 months from now. A few of the important variables are available supply, demand, and currency risk. We'll assume that supply stays constant and that no brand new cheap mines are coming on board. We should also be able to assume that demand will increase (if the world economy continues to expand) and there is more need in former underdeveloped countries. If you only consider those two things then price should definitely increase. But, you may have noticed that the world has a huge debt problem and we're not really sure how long the world economy will expand before we have to quit spending money that we don't really have. That becomes a major issue in trying to guess the price of lead.

    If the dollar goes down relative to other currencies then the price of lead goes up. There does seem to be a desire by the FED to push the dollar lower so that we can continue to pay off the US debt with cheap money. However, if you do that too much then the dollar becomes nearly worthless and hyperinflation kicks in. No worries though, you won't be shooting then anyway.

    So, if I were a betting person, I would guess that the price goes higher. But, it will really depend on how we deal with our crushing debt load. Cheap money or stop spending.
     
  4. shannon391

    shannon391 Active Member

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    silver has hit a 32 year high of $41 per oz. I used to buy it for $4-$5.
     
  5. Unknown1

    Unknown1 Well-Known Member

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    If you want it you'll buy it; price will be irrelevant.

    MK
     
  6. cubancigar2000

    cubancigar2000 Well-Known Member

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    It will be over $50 soon
     
  7. warren

    warren Member

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    As we all know lead is very heavy and tranporting it is expensive, with the price of fuel going up I don't see how it can go down in price. I might add that the price of oil is 100% based on our leaders politics, there is plenty of oil and natural gas around but we are not allowed to drill for it.

    warren
     
  8. W.P.T.

    W.P.T. TS Member

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    I talked to the Swammy of all Swammies, The Guru of Guru's and was told $50.00/$60.00 per bag will not be far off in the future, all things considered ... $5.00/$6.00 for gas will not be far off either in the future either ... WPT ... (YAC) ...
     
  9. shannon391

    shannon391 Active Member

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  10. rdf59

    rdf59 Member

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    Good comments guys.

    Question. If you were to invest, as a portion of your portfolio, in gold, silver or copper now, would you also consider in investing in lead?

    Lead, in our trapshooting world, has gone from $50 to $25 to $39 in the last 5 years. It has not outperformed gold or silver. They are up more that lead over the last three years. Lead seems to be lagging a little. Would any of you consider buying it as an investment for two years down the road?
     
  11. warren

    warren Member

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    If your gonna do that buy stock in a mining co. or an ETF not the actual commodity. The stock will move with the market plus you can get a dividend. The only way to profit from owning the commodity is by selling it.

    warren
     
  12. K80Dude

    K80Dude Member

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    It will be higher than it is right now...by how much well if I knew that I would be worth a lot of money! I am in the battery industry which is the largest consumer of lead in the world. We have had 2 price increases since Feb of 9.5% and are planning on seeing additional price increases. Typically lead will fall in price one the LME during the summer months but since there is a good 3-5 month lag in consumption and you are dealing with retail pricing from stocking dealers. What all this means is even if lead comes down a little this summer you are not going to see any lower prices. If the dealer reorders shot now or into the summer they are buying shot made with lead purchased first quarter of 2011. First and second quarter this year we have seen the highest prices in over 50 years. Bottom line is get used to high lead prices, fuel prices and all metals and plastics.

    David
     
  13. rdf59

    rdf59 Member

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    K80Dude, you made an interesting comment that prices are not high due to supply and demand and there is no shortage of metals. What is the reason prices are up?
     
  14. b12

    b12 Well-Known Member

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    rdf 59
    GREED my friend.
     
  15. hmb

    hmb Well-Known Member

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    Today the price of lead on the open market is $1.30 a pound. That translates to $32.50 for the price of 25 lbs of lead needed to make a bag of shot. HMB
     
  16. skeeljc

    skeeljc Supporting Vendor Supporting Vendor

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    Here is my history of the "Producer" price of lead from the Wall Street Journal.

    [​IMG]

    The Producer Price broke $2.00 per pound in September of 2007. At that time shot was north of $40.00 per bag. It approached $50.00 per bag at some retailers but I don't think they ever sold any at $50.00.

    My Prediction: Unless the price of oil comes down under $100.00 we will see shot well above $40.00 per bag.

    $40.00 shot and $4.00 gas could turn into $50.00 shot and $5.00 gas!! Not good for out shooting sports.

    Jim Skeel<BR>
    P/W Dealer/Distributor
     
  17. southjblue

    southjblue Active Member

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    You may all be wrong---Oil will plunge $20.00 a bbl soon---So we won't be able to blame it on gas price since it should go down also---HOPE and CHANGE is hovering over us---George@SJB---
     
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