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Trapshooting Odds

Discussion in 'Shooting Related Threads' started by K005, Jan 16, 2012.

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  1. K005

    K005 Member

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    [​IMG]


    Are you feeling lucky? You can use this chart to calculate the probability of going straight. I would think that you would have to be averaging 91% or higher to make the odds pay. I think the copyright ran out on this a few years ago. This is part of a series of articles from American Shotgunner. If anyone is interested, I can try to upload the pdf copy. The article explains the risk - rewards of playing options and purses.

    Bob K.
     
  2. crusha

    crusha TS Member

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    Blah blah blah.



    "That chart was made back when we had REAL targets, by god!"
     
  3. Brad Dysinger

    Brad Dysinger Member

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    Trap shooting is a game of skill not chance. To be successful you only have to break one target at a time, no other human can make you pull the trigger, no target thrown is unbreakable, no one to blame if you miss but yourself, charts and graphs about odds are meaningless. Brad Dysinger
     
  4. Avaldes

    Avaldes Well-Known Member

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    I think the gambling aspect of ATA shooting screws a lot of people up. Maybe before they even sign up for an event. All you hear is people moaning about how big the purses used to be 40 years ago. If that is all you are worried about, that is probably one thought too many interfering with breaking a good score.
     
  5. sliverbulletexpress

    sliverbulletexpress TS Member

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    I wish I'd have been around when you could win a new Cadillac with a 82.
     
  6. Calkidd

    Calkidd Well-Known Member

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    1975?! That scale might be just a bit out of date....

    Bryan
     
  7. powertrader

    powertrader TS Member

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    i'd say thats pretty cool. i'll bet a hundred i cant break more than you.
     
  8. Kemper

    Kemper Active Member

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    Brad stop telling the truth would you. Damn i miss you guys.

    I'm coming to Ohio this year, I can't stand it anymore.

    Barry Kemper
     
  9. tanda1

    tanda1 Active Member

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    It is an interpretation of the relationship between averages and probability. Not saying that it is accurate, but the date and the difficulty of the targets are inconsequential.
     
  10. Setterman

    Setterman Well-Known Member

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    Bet it don't work in Kentucky!
     
  11. OldGoat

    OldGoat Well-Known Member

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    How do the odds presented by "holes in your pattern" figure into all this? Shot patterns are not perfect and are generally expressed as a percentage of pellets in a circle which - even if it has a high percentage, say 80 to 90% - there are still gaps present which allow targets to "escape". So, frequently, a chip or poor break indicates that trap success does have a certain element or amount of "luck" (along with some skill) to break a winning score. Lots of odds to cope with in betting your hard-earned rent or insulin money. "Playing" options is a poor option. Regards...and flame away. Ed
     
  12. Big Heap

    Big Heap TS Member

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    Trapshooting is a game. Options have all the reward possibilities of roulette.

    The old boys who toured the world setting up trap or live bird shoots could skin the locals but I can't think of one of them who retired on his winnings.

    The day we took-up a collection for Arnold Riegger's headstone was the last day I played an option.
     
  13. K005

    K005 Member

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    No one said trapshooting was a game of chance. This graph is based on
    mathematics, Bernoulli’s theory. It is used when there are only two outcomes for
    an event in this case dead or lost. All it is telling you are the chances of
    breaking a certain score or better with a given average. If you have a 95 average you can be expected to break a 50 straight 1 in 13 events. If you have a 90 average you have a 1 in 200 chance. Nothing to do with chance, just probable outcomes. I wouldn’t say the chart is meaningless, it gives some indication of what to expect. Bob K. 5719005
     
  14. OldGoat

    OldGoat Well-Known Member

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    No intent to start a controversy or challenge the premise of this thread...sorry if I caused any problem. I guess I'm the only dummy who sees trapshooting success as a game of chance. If any patterning is done - especially at handicap distances - there are always apparent holes in the pattern which tell me that even the best "centered" target can escape unbroken...some even if struck by a few pellets and do not break. Best Regards, Ed
     
  15. 20yard

    20yard TS Member

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    K005 did the article say Bernoulli's theory? I thought we used to call those Binomial graphs, basically long term probablity (here your average) and then probablity of certain outcome (25 or 50 straight). I would like to read the article if you can forward or post.
     
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