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The election so far

Discussion in 'Politics, Elections & Legislation' started by shootinghero, Jun 14, 2012.

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  1. shootinghero

    shootinghero TS Member

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    I cant share the source with you, but this is from a Republican leaning analytical firm.

    Starting with a pretty solid baseof 237 (assuming a close race) and assuming he holds Wisconsin (which hasn’t voted Republican since 1984), Obama could get to a majority several ways. He could prevail by: 1)winning Florida, 2) winning the Southwestern states of CO and NV (and NM, which we think leans Democratic) along with NH and IA, 3) carrying NC and VA, or 4) winning OH and two small swing states. For what it’s worth, we think path number three is not realistic. If Obama is winning NC and VA, he is almost certainty winning FL, OH and other swing states.


    For Romney, the only realistic path to 270 (in a relatively close race) involves winning FL and OH. GOP operatives have talked about a 3-2-1 strategy of winning all the states McCain carried plus the three GOP-leaning states of IN, NC and VA, plus the two big swing states of FL and OH and any one of the small swing states (CO, IA, NH, NV or even WI). Bottom line: Obama has more viable paths to 270 in a close race, which gives him an Electoral College advantage.

    The other Electoral College advantage he has, which is related to the above analysis, is that Obama is probably more likely to win the Electoral College vote if the popular vote is a tie.

    Recall that in 2000, George W. Bush lost the popular vote by about a half a percentage point (or about 550,000 votes) and still won a majority in the Electoral College. Today, however, Obama would be more likely to win an election where the popular vote is a tie.
  2. halfmile

    halfmile Well-Known Member

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    He will continue to lose favor if he keeps pushing lies and distortions about the economy that he has failed to fix.

    The big question:

    How much Kool-Aid can these fools tolerate? (If you have an Obamaniac in the family you know esactly what I mean).

    HM
  3. Brian in Oregon

    Brian in Oregon Well-Known Member

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    "But but but... only Romney can win!"

    Yeah, how's that working out now?
  4. John Galt

    John Galt TS Member

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    Give it a rest will ya- everybody already knows you don't like Romney so why do you need to repeat it ad nausium?
  5. BAD 303

    BAD 303 Active Member

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    Romney will win the elction by 7-9 points. Watch how it all plays out. Figures don't lie but liars figure.
  6. Brian in Oregon

    Brian in Oregon Well-Known Member

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    Why? Don't like the boat ride you're on?

    Just pointing out to my fellow Republicans how the liberal element of the party along with Democrats constantly chanted that ONLY Romney can win. Maybe they will take this lesson to heart in 2016 and nominate a real conservative. Might as well start laying the groundwork now.
  7. crusha

    crusha TS Member

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    I don't think there's any way Romney is winning Ohio. The Buckeye State has seemingly become an annex of Pennsylvania and Michigan. This is the state that sent Howard Metzenbaum back to the Senate, time after time...and that was 30 years ago, when everyone had jobs and money.


    But maybe something else can happen I didn't forsee.
  8. shootinghero

    shootinghero TS Member

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    I love to read Brian's posts because it shows how clever the Obama supporters are. He claims to be a conservative Republican but the reality is that he is probably just another unemployed black put to work on the internet boards by the Obama campaign to sow seeds of dissent. He certainly could not be as stupid as his arguments. No one cares how he votes, but it is important to note there is traitor amongst us.
  9. cnsane

    cnsane TS Member

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    And thusly above we get to see the difference between people who will hurt themselves to uphold their principles and those who will go along to get along. In another six months we get to see who prevails and what they have wrought for the rest of us.
  10. Catpower

    Catpower Well-Known Member

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    I don't think Brian is any Obozo supporter, he's just standing firm on his principles, and I have to admire him for that, because you have to stand for something or you will fall for anything as the song goes
  11. WS-1

    WS-1 Well-Known Member

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    Just because you stand for something doesn't make you special. Hitler stood for something. Kim Jong Il stood for something. The idea is to stand for something that is morally and ethically viable. Nothing is ever just black or just white. This election, like every other one in our history, will be decided on varying shades of grey. There are members here who need to revisit our motto, "E Pluribus Unum" and decide for themselves which of the two candidates is most likely to unite us. Remember, "a house divided cannot stand."

    If you want your America defined as a black and white America or a rich and poor America or a Christian and Muslim America or a Private Sector or Public Sector America or a Free Enterprise or Big Government America, then I would urge you to vote for Barack Obama, because he wants to divide us to CONQUER us.

    Romney wants us to be free. If you want freedom and the pleasure of living in a country that is governed by the people, then I would urge you to vote for Mitt Romney.

    Romney has warts, but Obama has cancer. You decide.
  12. birdogs

    birdogs TS Member

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    Im honestly believe that the polls are wrong. I don't think that OBO has nearly the support the polls show. This has happenmed once before when the exit polls showed Bush losing and "exit polls are never wrong". I don't believe that people are being honest with the pollsters and why should they be?
  13. Catpower

    Catpower Well-Known Member

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    Oh I'm voting for Romney no doubt, but Brian has stated over and over again he isn't so I don't see why everybody doesn't give it up, and move on the make sure all the undecided voters vote for Romney also

    Birddogs, I agree, I think the exit polls are being manipulated don't know whether it's the people taking the polls lying or the people being polled, I suspect it's the pollsters lying it gives them a warm fuzzy feeling that the loser they are behind is going to win

    Until he gets his A$$ whipped
  14. Tugboat

    Tugboat Member

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    Please remember the words of Joseph Stalin.... "It does not matter who wins the election, but who counts the votes"..
  15. cnsane

    cnsane TS Member

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    Yeah, Diebold--a George Soros company.
  16. shadow

    shadow Active Member

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    I happen to not agree with Brians'thinking, but will defend his right to vote for/against whomever he wishes. Brian is basicly a one issue voter (2nd ammendment) and neither of our big party candidates are especially strong in that area.
  17. Johnny

    Johnny Active Member

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    a famous quote that Stalin never uttered.
  18. Catpower

    Catpower Well-Known Member

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    Nope Obozo did
  19. Chichay

    Chichay Active Member

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    Brian's position nothwithstanding, if you have children, think of the country they will be living in when you vote this November. Presidents, good and bad, leave lasting legacy on the country. We are still paying for Carter's stupidity. Chichay
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