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Statistical Analysis of Blow Ups?

Discussion in 'Shooting Related Threads' started by Gross Man, Feb 12, 2012.

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  1. Gross Man

    Gross Man Member

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    I am a serious shooter and reloader who is concerned with Blow Ups. We have seen a lot of information, theories. conjuncture, and some objective data on shotgun Blow Ups, but we haven't seen much real analysis and scientific conclusions. When Wernher von Braun ran the manned flight program at NASA, there was no such thing as a "Random Failure" or "Human Error". Every failure was investigated and analyzed to find the root cause and corrective action was taken to prevent it from happening again. The FAA follows a similar process with aircraft accidents.

    Now we have a big shooting industry with gun manufactures, ammo and powder produces, and various shooting associations. It would seem to me that somewhere in this complex, we would have an organization concerned enough with safety, that proper corrective action could be taken. I know sometimes that we see data from testing labs on the accident, but I never get a feeling that anyone is determining the root cause and taking the proper corrective action.

    I would like to see an organization create a database of gun blow ups, perform the lab analysis, and analyze the statistics. Hopefully, this could lead to corrective action. I post this thread to generate some constructive discussion and possibly instigate some action.

    Billy Gross
     
  2. chipking

    chipking TS Member

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    I'm all for it and will provide any data I have or can recover from my old computer as requested. Who would you suggest as a neutral third party to run the analysis. It sure cannot be firearms, powder, ammo, reloader or reloading components manufacturers because all have a vested interest in proving it ain't their problem before finding what the problem really is.

    Maybe a NSSB (National Shooting Safety Board) patterned after the NTSB with funding provided by ????.

    --- Chip King ---
     
  3. 320090T

    320090T Well-Known Member

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    I've never had a blowup but have been on the line with two, very scary! Neither one was figured out.
     
  4. billyboy07208

    billyboy07208 Member

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    I wonder how many had backboring and long cones?
     
  5. crusha

    crusha TS Member

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    I suggest we nominate the old ex-military bulls from Quantico Trap & Skeet to be the Failure Review Board.


    Combined with Grammie's feces-analysis abilities...that should provide for some interesting reading.


    (Who was that guy..."Royal" what's his face? Grammie would have a lot to analyze, with him).
     
  6. oleolliedawg

    oleolliedawg Banned User Banned TS Supporters

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    Probably plenty more than we'd believe. Some of these backyard back-borers don't seem to understand wall thickness!!
     
  7. Avaldes

    Avaldes Well-Known Member

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    We do have a safety board, it is called SAAMI. They define standards for cartridges and shotshells. They have done the statistical analysis for the factory ammo and defined proof loads that ensure that factory made guns are safe with factory made ammo. Obviously anything that is altered from that combination would not be covered by the spec. That is why your gun's warranty is void if you shoot reloads.

    Having been involved in numerous aircraft incident investigations, it is an interesting parallel between failure analysis in aircraft and failure analysis (or lack of) in guns. It would be facinating if the manufacturers produced guns that were modified by the popular gunsmiths and performed proof testing on them. I bet Tom Wilkinson would sell a lot more tuned barrels if he were "licensed" by the factory to do so.
     
  8. jdsfarms

    jdsfarms Well-Known Member

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    As with all things that explode"Sh*t happens"!Jerry
     
  9. trapshootin hippie

    trapshootin hippie Well-Known Member

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    Oops, I thought this post was about some kind of doll. Sorry


    GneJ
     
  10. Baber

    Baber TS Member

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    There is always the common excuse for blow ups.... RELOADS

    I don't buy it... We need a better look at these accidents. I agree with this concept.

    Tom
     
  11. Leo

    Leo Well-Known Member

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    I have been around a S&W .357 revolver blow up that was shooting gun show reload ammo that was sold in lunch bags with no label

    I have been around a rifle blow up, (ar15) shooting reloaded ammo that the guy got confused and filled the case with WW 296 magnum pistol powder instead of WW748 rifle powder

    I have been around a K gun blow up. The owner reloads ammo in a room with a beer refrigerator right next to the bench with a bottle of scotch on top. (GOOD SCOTCH, the guy could afford to go first classs)

    I own a couple of S&W revolvers, and AR15 rifles. I prefer Beretta shotguns, but I would not be afraid to buy a K Gun if that was what I wanted. I use factory rounds and my own reloads only. When I reload I take it seriously and pay full attention. I double check everything and design preventive safety into my reloading setup. I believe most blow ups are from sloppy owners and bad ammo, not modern manufacturing defects. I think real stats will show that to be true.
     
  12. Claymuncher

    Claymuncher Member

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    It might also save a shooter from serious damage down the line to find out how the majority happens. Until I started with TS I did not realize their were so many blowups. It might help give organizations a little push if we could come up with a number of occurrences. Can we start a survey somehow on TS for those who have seen them and the damage caused. A simple post from all witnesses to add up might work, along with an estimate of the date.

    CM
     
  13. joe kuhn

    joe kuhn Furry Lives Matter TS Supporters

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    Go way around!

    joekuhn_2008_030314.jpg
     
  14. oleolliedawg

    oleolliedawg Banned User Banned TS Supporters

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    I've never seen a gun not blow up with reloads!!
     
  15. School Teacher

    School Teacher Well-Known Member

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    With so many variables, I wonder how a valid statistical analysis of firearm “blowups” can be performed.

    I know that I have personally accidently overcharged a load using the old fashioned Lee Loader. I probably had something like 36 grains of Red Dot in the Federal Paper hull. Everybody in the clubhouse came out to see what happened but the old 870 held together.

    As a user of Federal papers who got every bit of use out of a hull, I probably picked out hundreds of head and body separations out of my 870. No big deal, you put in a complete hull and you make sure you extract a complete hull, even if it is in two pieces.

    I have screwed down the powder bottle on my MEC reloader too tight and therefore obtained a light or none powder drop. When you get a blooper, you make sure that the barrel is clear before you load another round. Federal primers alone will usually push the wad and shot out of the barrel, other brands may not,

    Before I chamber the first round of the day, I always make sure that the bore is open and that a mud dauber or some other insect has not built a nest in the barrel. The same is true for any cleaning supplies like a patch or piece of rag that may have come off the cleaning rod during cleaning.

    I once saw an 870 barrel that had a perfectly concentric budge about 12 inches down the barrel that was believed to be caused by water droplets from shooting in the rain and holding the barrel in an upright position. It was a pretty small bulge and the owner of the gun kept on using it. I tried not to stand too near him when he shot.

    Having shot "games" since the 1970's, I have heard many a load that sounded like a 105 mm howitzer going off. Yet, I have never seen a gun blow up at a turkey shoot.

    I know of a small town police officer who got the nickname "old three fingers" because he blew the fingertips off of two fingers of his left hand cleaning the snow out of an old short barreled twin trigger double barrel with external hammers. Somehow the gun discharged and that is how he earned his nickname. He was fortunate that his finger tips were in the muzzle at right angles. The surgeon did a nice job of saving most of his injured fingers. He is long since passed away and was a really nice guy. I think that he made moonshine on the side.

    Given the large population of shooters and shooters who reload, it seems to me that a very high percentage of shooters and reloaders do a great job.

    Ed Ward
     
  16. 221

    221 Banned User Banned TS Supporters

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    Be careful what you wish for. The results and corrective action may be more than you bargained for.
     
  17. Hap MecTweaks

    Hap MecTweaks Well-Known Member

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    Gun manufacturers take the obvious outs when guaranteeing a gun, none if reloads are used. It's true some people should never reload ammunitions of any kind yet most get by without any major catastrophes. For every new shell I shoot, I probably shoot 10 reloads, quite a guarantee on that ratio.

    I don't look to have any definitive answers from any source anytime soon on what causes some guns to blow up. Some even blow using new factory ammo too so what caused that one to give up?

    Metals when subjected to heat and cooling cycles change the molecular structure of the metal, some. Add stress and that may come about quicker. In my line of work, I've seen mild steel plates 1/4 inch thick literally shatter like glass when hit with a sledge hammer! The roof systems over the top of steel making blast furnaces subjected to those extremes are all mild steel members and will shatter like glass! Making a guns receiver so hard as to not be able to engrave it may be suspect? A lot of the blown receiver pictures I've seen look to have shattered rather than rip and spread from expanding gases. In some tests we performed, we used equipment to latterly rip test plates apart. None ever shattered, they were ripped apart. To get to that point, a change in the molecular to the metal must come about through other forces to shatter like glass will.

    Hap
     
  18. slayer

    slayer Well-Known Member

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    ok what is the difference between "detonation" and "overcharging". Maybe I don't understand but aren't shells supposed to detonate? thanks Bill
     
  19. mx2k33

    mx2k33 Well-Known Member

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    There is no "organization" that will ever find firearms "safe".
     
  20. hmb

    hmb Well-Known Member

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    Bill, Overcharging the shell, when the primer ignites the powder it burns at a given rate. When the powder in a shell detonates it explodes all at once and emits a sonic shock wave that is very destructive. HMB
     
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