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Shotgun blowup what are the odds

Discussion in 'Shooting Related Threads' started by chipking, Dec 23, 2008.

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  1. chipking

    chipking TS Member

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 1998
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    1,761
    Reading the latest "BLOWUP" thread and then the post about registered targets declining got me to thinking. What are the odds. Based on the number of registered targets and assuming 25% more for practice and games gives us a number in excess of 100 million. Compared with the number of reported blowups and allowing a huge fudge factor you can come up with the odds of about 1 in 1 million to 1 in 10 million per year. This means you stand a far better chance of being involved in a wreck either going to or coming from the range no matter what car you drive or what fuel you put in it.

    --- Chip King ---
     
  2. Savage99Stan

    Savage99Stan Active Member

    Joined:
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    1,081
    I agree. What I am going to suggest in no way is meant to imply that the blowups described on TS are caused by human "error". I do know that there is a lot of misconception out there about strength of materials, loading manual "caution" and so on. I've never experienced a blowup but have had a shell or two come apart, one throwing fire out the ejection port of my 870 when I thought I had a blooper. It was a double A which had been loaded maybe one or two times too many and I think the crimp didn't have enough tension to hold the shot/wad in place to assure complete ignition...letting the wad and shot go ahead into the barrel, then igniting the powder charge. The reason I think this is because the shell casing was folded back in on itself when I ejected it. Last station, first shell, fifty bird summer league, 44/45 so far. Lost that bird, got the next four..how I don't know cause I'm sure I shut my eyes on the pull. I sorted out all cases of that age.

    I've heard people say that they load over the max because the powder manufacturers are too conservative, that the guns are designed for a 50%, 100%, whatever overload. I believe neither. I've never had a base wad migrate but won't say it can't happen. I'm still shooting Remington pre-recall barrels and don't worry a whit about it as I shoot either factory "decent" shells or quality reloads which I make up using exact recipes.

    I also wear quality eye and ear protection.....
     
  3. shot410ga

    shot410ga Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 1998
    Messages:
    7,763
    I've never seen one blow up in 30+ years of trap shooting, except on trapshooters.com. Odds are very, very slim.
     
  4. 320090T

    320090T Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 1998
    Messages:
    3,347
    Location:
    Indiana
    I witnessed, too close, a man blowing up two within an hour. Had to be the shells but none of the remaining 225 showed anything out of spec, but I sure wouldn't shoot them.
     
  5. chipking

    chipking TS Member

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 1998
    Messages:
    1,761
    Reading the latest "BLOWUP" thread and then the post about registered targets declining got me to thinking. What are the odds. Based on the number of registered targets and assuming 25% more for practice and games gives us a number in excess of 100 million. Compared with the number of reported blowups and allowing a huge fudge factor you can come up with the odds of about 1 in 1 million to 1 in 10 million per year. This means you stand a far better chance of being involved in a wreck either going to or coming from the range no matter what car you drive or what fuel you put in it.

    --- Chip King ---
     
  6. Savage99Stan

    Savage99Stan Active Member

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2007
    Messages:
    1,081
    I agree. What I am going to suggest in no way is meant to imply that the blowups described on TS are caused by human "error". I do know that there is a lot of misconception out there about strength of materials, loading manual "caution" and so on. I've never experienced a blowup but have had a shell or two come apart, one throwing fire out the ejection port of my 870 when I thought I had a blooper. It was a double A which had been loaded maybe one or two times too many and I think the crimp didn't have enough tension to hold the shot/wad in place to assure complete ignition...letting the wad and shot go ahead into the barrel, then igniting the powder charge. The reason I think this is because the shell casing was folded back in on itself when I ejected it. Last station, first shell, fifty bird summer league, 44/45 so far. Lost that bird, got the next four..how I don't know cause I'm sure I shut my eyes on the pull. I sorted out all cases of that age.

    I've heard people say that they load over the max because the powder manufacturers are too conservative, that the guns are designed for a 50%, 100%, whatever overload. I believe neither. I've never had a base wad migrate but won't say it can't happen. I'm still shooting Remington pre-recall barrels and don't worry a whit about it as I shoot either factory "decent" shells or quality reloads which I make up using exact recipes.

    I also wear quality eye and ear protection.....
     
  7. shot410ga

    shot410ga Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 1998
    Messages:
    7,763
    I've never seen one blow up in 30+ years of trap shooting, except on trapshooters.com. Odds are very, very slim.
     
  8. 320090T

    320090T Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 1998
    Messages:
    3,347
    Location:
    Indiana
    I witnessed, too close, a man blowing up two within an hour. Had to be the shells but none of the remaining 225 showed anything out of spec, but I sure wouldn't shoot them.
     
  9. g7777777

    g7777777 TS Supporters TS Supporters

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    Jan 29, 1998
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    9,354
    One man-- 2 hours?

    Yea I am pretty sure that it is an understatement- that the man who blew them up caused the problem-

    regards from Iowa

    Gene
     
  10. BT-100dc

    BT-100dc Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2008
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    1,487
    The odds are good if the goods are odd; reloading shotshells, along with any other reloading takes alot of care. I, fortunately, after 35 years of trap, have not seen a blow-up (gun) although I've seen the shooter blow up. In the winter, when I sweep off the trapfield, I make sure that the snow is swept right in front of each firing position plus to the left of station 1 & right of station 5. This minimizes the chance of a shooter getting snow in the barrel. We also keep a ramrod close, and, as a scorer I ask the shooter to check his barrel if experiencing a "projectile dysfunction". What I've noticed is people using progressive reloaders, a MEC for example but not limited to, and the reloader (the person behind the switch) fails to pickup a full charge of powder. That's why, from the start, we keep a ramrod close. Darrell
     
  11. OldGoat

    OldGoat Well-Known Member

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    Nov 17, 2008
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    1,566
    Location:
    Overland Park KS
    After shooting for ~30 years only personally observed one "blow up" a couple of years ago...on a sporting clay course involving a Browning Gold auto which bulged the receiver, blew a piece off the forend, and jammed the bolt back into the receiver. No injury to shooter or others. The shell involved was "factory" but some import from Europe (don't remember the brand). It appeared that a previous hull had separated, stuck in the barrel, and the next shell blew due to the obstruction. Scary experience. Best Regards, Ed
     
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