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Predicting the Southern Grand HC Champion.

Discussion in 'Shooting Related Threads' started by JBrooks, Mar 10, 2009.

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  1. JBrooks

    JBrooks TS Member

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    My prediction as to who will win the Southern Grand Handicap Championship is that it will be a well-established 27 yard shooter with a handicap average in excess of 94 or it will be a young, hot shooter standing on no more than the 21 yard line. How can I make this prediction? Because this is the profile of all major shoot handicap winners.

    The reason these two types of shooters win major shoot handicap championships is because they are both under handicapped. The established 27 yard shooters have mastered the game at 27 yards and walk to the line expecting to shoot 96+ in the same manner that an AA singles shooter has that same expectation. The short yardage shooter is under handicapped because they find little difference in shooting from the 20-21 compared to the 16 but they have not yet earned yardage in to the dead zone of 22-26 yards.

    Why is the 22-26 yards a dead zone of handicap champion winners? Because a good shooter moving through these yardages never stays at a particular yardage long enough to truly master it and reach the proficiency required to shoot the 98-99 score that usually wins a major shoot handicap.

    A partial answer is to start new shooters at the 22 and let the less proficient work their way forward while the more proficient work their way back and to create a Master Class of 27 yard shooters that average 94+ and can shoot the 98-99 winning scores on a regular basis.
     
  2. grnberetcj

    grnberetcj Active Member

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    The idea has merit. However, I personally would like to see all new shooters start on the 24 yd. line, then either work their way down or back.

    Then again, I'd like to see 60 yd. targets travelling at 60 mph.....

    Curt
     
  3. JACK

    JACK Well-Known Member Supporting Vendor

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    I wasted my life, in the "Dead Zone"
     
  4. Setterman

    Setterman Well-Known Member

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    Can't argue. Look at Tuesday's handicap. 4 out of top 5 are common names on the leader board.
     
  5. JBrooks

    JBrooks TS Member

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    Just checkout the Punch list.
     
  6. scott calhoun

    scott calhoun Well-Known Member

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    Nothing more irritating than going to a trapshoot and seeing the best shooter win. We need to find a way for the lazy and those without talent (in many cases both describe the same person) to win.
     
  7. JBrooks

    JBrooks TS Member

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    Gee Scott, you really missed the point and you don't understand the concept of a handicap system. A perfect handicap system allows participants of varying ABILITies to compete on a leveled playing field. As such, a handicap event should NOT determine the best shooter, it should determine the shooter who most exceeded his established ability during that event.

    A perfect class system, such as in singles, is used to establish the BEST shooter within each class. In our sport that would be the winner of the AAA class. No, the Singles Champion would not be the best shooter if he comes from AA or lower, just the best that day.
     
  8. Rvator97

    Rvator97 TS Member

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    I predict that Tiger Woods will win at Doral this week... so maybe they should move the tees back 30-50 yds for him; just to "give the rest of the field a chance"!
     
  9. JBrooks

    JBrooks TS Member

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    Oh, so you are one of those add concrete guys. lol
     
  10. JACK

    JACK Well-Known Member Supporting Vendor

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    Mark Zauhar, Ricky, Leo, Kay, Phil... one of those.
     
  11. grnberetcj

    grnberetcj Active Member

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    No need for more concrete....just adjust the target speed (60 mph), wider angles and a greater distance (60 yd. min.)...

    Let's put some sport back in the sport!

    Curt
     
  12. scott calhoun

    scott calhoun Well-Known Member

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    Jim -

    I believe maybe you do not understand the handicap system. Your comments did not describe a handicap system (for trapshooting or any other handicapping system that I'm familiar with).

    The handicap system is designed to level the playing field - no argument there. But your comment that it's supposed to identify the person who most exceeds their ability is incorrect.

    In our sport, handicapping is done with yardage. In other sports it's done with score. In all cases, the person gaining the advantage is not given the full benefit of his handicap. For example, in golf your handicap is based on the best 10 of your last 20 scores, and you only get 80 or 90 percent of your calculated handicap. This obviously places the lesser skilled player at a disadvantage vs. a player with more skill.

    The lesser skilled player also has a much higher standard deviation in his scores, which makes it much easier for a "high handicapper" to lap the field. It's magnified in a sport with a maximum score (such as trapshooting), since a 20-yarder with an 88 average can shoot 99 or 100, but Leo or Phil can't shoot a 105 to beat you.

    I've said it before and I'll say it again - most people can't shoot a 16-yard score high enough to win a handicap event, so I'm not sure how you can change the system/rules to make it possible for them to win a handicap event. The best shooters are going to continue to win until you change the rules to eliminate their skill advantage.

    Scott
     
  13. JBrooks

    JBrooks TS Member

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    Scott;

    "The handicap system is designed to level the playing field - no argument there. But your comment that it's supposed to identify the person who most exceeds their ability is incorrect."

    You missed it again. You have the basic concept of an HC system right which is to 1. identify a competitor's current ability based upon past performances so that an expected performance level can be determined and then 2. create competitive disadvantages for the higher skilled participants either through scoring, like golf, or, in our case making them shoot from further back.

    However, the system just creates the level field. It is then the performance of each individual in a given event that then determines a winner. If the system works, it is the individual who most exceeds their expected performance that wins. In our yardage system, theoretically we should see people at every yardage being the one who most exceeds their handicapped ability in a given event. We see this at short yardage and at 27 from a subset of accomplished shooters but not from the yardages in between.

    In our sport, the highest expected performance is to break all 100 targets. we know based on HC averages and scores that that is an unusual performance from any yardage. However, theoretically in a properly performing handicap system, 100s should be turned in occassionally by some shooters on every yardage. However that is not the case. We see 100s turned in by short yardage(19-21) shooters and by a small group of 27 yard shooters, but very rarely by 22-26 yard shooters.

    Why is this? It is because there are good, new shooters who are actually underhandicapped at 19-21 yards. They don't stay there very long. There are shooters who have mastered our maximum distance of 27 yards. They win consistently.

    "The best shooters are going to continue to win until you change the rules to eliminate their skill advantage."

    I would put it "The underhandicapped shooters are going to continue to win until you change the rules to eliminate their skill advantage."
     
  14. Hap MecTweaks

    Hap MecTweaks Well-Known Member

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    Scores of all would be totally different with Curt's target settings. That would raise the handicap bar for sure while making the max yardage work as it was intended. Handicap scores shouldn't look the same on the scoreboard as class A singles?

    Hap
     
  15. Bob Hawkes

    Bob Hawkes Well-Known Member

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    Hap's last sentence says a lot. You are correct Hap. Take a look at the earned punches. 80% or better at the large shoots are earned by 27yd shooters. Good for Phil K to keep talking about it. Bob
     
  16. JBrooks

    JBrooks TS Member

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    "Handicap scores shouldn't look the same on the scoreboard as class A singles?"

    Why shouldn't they? In reality the best score that can be posted is 100. We know that 100s are fairly rare even in singles, but are definitely achievable by good shooters regularly and lesser shooters occassionally.

    This statistical probability should apply to HC as well and in fact does but only in short yardage and in a subset of 27 yard shooters. It is the mid yardages where it doesn't apply and that is because good shooters eventually reach the 27 without spending enough time at the intervening yardages to master those yardages and less talented shooters yo yo around in the midyardages but also never attaining the proficiecy at those yardages to post competitive scores with the underhandicapped short yardage shooters and the under handicapped 27 yard master shooters.
     
  17. scott calhoun

    scott calhoun Well-Known Member

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    Jim -

    When I mentioned "skill advantage" what I was referring to was moving people back or limiting ammunition so that it was no longer a game of skill for the best shooters. Neil has studied/documented that some combination of distance and ammunition makes the ability to break a target more about luck than skill. If you eliminate the skill advantage and make breaking targets all about luck then the good shooters would be better off playing the lottery or going to the bingo parlor than shooting targets.

    Many have advocated making the targets harder (faster, wider) but I think we all know that won't slow down the good shooters for very long, but will give the average/poor shooter fits for the rest of their shooitng days. Ultimately the same people will win - because they are better shooters.

    Basing the outcome on who most exceeds their ability is why everyone bitches about a D class shooter winning singles with a 99 or 100. In your scenario the same guy who is vilified as a sandbagger during singles would be hearlded as a champion during the handicap event. Guys like Phil and Leo can only exceed their ability in handicap by 3-4-5 targets, but some people can exceed by it by 15 or 20. Should the guy with an 80 average in handicap at the 20 yard line be the winner by shooting 85 when Phil and Leo put up 99?

    Scott
     
  18. Hap MecTweaks

    Hap MecTweaks Well-Known Member

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    JBrooks, I stated class A for a reason, not AA or AAA in my singles reference.

    "Why shouldn't they? In reality the best score that can be posted is 100. We know that 100s are fairly rare even in singles, but are definitely achievable by good shooters regularly and lesser shooters occasionally."

    Because in class A, even at big shoots, class A is sometimes won with a less than perfect score. Certainly not, or hardly ever with AA or AAA shooters?

    As it stands now, they do shoot 100s from the max, way more than were shot prior to an easier target setting rule. A simple look at ATAs shooting history will confirm that too.

    Changing the speed/angle and distance by adding more has more effect on said shooter the farther away the shooter is! The game is PRECISE POINTING! That's why easier angles and softer targets skew the results in favor of the top shooters today. Higher speed mixed with tougher angles makes precise pointing much tougher, matters not who the shooter is and would make the 27 max yardage work better as it was intended.

    Look up some of the 20 yard shooters that occasionally break all the targets? Some of those old guys used to be 27 yard shooters with hundreds of thousands of targets under their belt. Yes, they too can have an exceptional day now and then. Good for them!!

    Hap

    I forgot my prediction. If mother nature is real nice, then I go with one of the higher handicap averages.
     
  19. JBrooks

    JBrooks TS Member

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    Scott;

    "Should the guy with an 80 average in handicap at the 20 yard line be the winner by shooting 85 when Phil and Leo put up 99?"

    No. Show me where I said he should?

    Also you are mixing the concept of class competitions with handicap competitions. Based on prior performance,(scores averaged) you can group competitors of similar ability into classes in which, theoretically, every shooter has the demonstrated ability to win his class.

    As previously stated, handicap competitions are designed to allow shooters of varying ability compete against the entire field.

    Again, my point is that good, primarily new shooters at short yardage are under handicapped by the short yardage. That can be easily fixed by starting new shooters at the 22.

    Nothing rational can be done by about shooters at the 27 who have mastered that yardage and, consequently are also underhandicapped againt the entire field. When I sa rational, I don't consider adding yardage past the acceptable range of a 12 gauge shotgun or degrading ammunition to the point where competitions are determined by the laws of physics rather than shooting skill.

    As such, the only rational solution is acknowledge the skill of these shooters and put these shooters in a Master Class.
     
  20. scott calhoun

    scott calhoun Well-Known Member

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    Jim -

    From your previous post . . .

    "As such, a handicap event should NOT determine the best shooter, it should determine the shooter who most exceeded his established ability during that event."

    If not score minus average, how exactly do you determine "who most exceeded his established ability"?

    Scott
     
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