1. Attention: We have put together a thread with tips and a tutorial video to help with using the new software. Please take a moment to check out the thread here: Trapshooters.com Tutorial & Help Video.
    Dismiss Notice

OT - The Power of Coincidence

Discussion in 'Off Topic Threads' started by dmarbell, Jun 9, 2013.

  1. dmarbell

    dmarbell Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2006
    Messages:
    1,572
    The power of coincidence is overwhelming.

    To illustrate, take a deck of 52 cards, without jokers, shuffle them well, and deal them all out face up. You have dealt a miracle!

    The number of deals in a deck of 52 cards is 52 factorial, or 52!. This number is about 8.065 times 10^67 (10 to the 67th power).

    Therefore, the chance you dealt your exact deal is about 1 in 80,650,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.

    Now, to put that into perspective, consider this:

    If there were a trillion worlds like earth, each with a trillion people, and each person had a trillion computers, and each computer could deal a trillion deals per second, and the computers started dealing deals 13 billion years ago near the start of the big bang, then all that would have to exist in 197 parallel universes for all the possible deals in a single deck of cards to have been dealt.

    No purpose for this post, except that mathematics is fun. And, the power of coincidence is amazing.

    Danny
     
  2. rpeerless

    rpeerless Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 4, 2009
    Messages:
    3,688
    Is that so?
     
  3. JPM

    JPM Member

    Joined:
    Dec 22, 2009
    Messages:
    320
    Wouldn't this better be titled "The Power of Probability?" JPM
     
  4. chuckie68

    chuckie68 Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2012
    Messages:
    1,839
    Location:
    Royal Oak, Michigan
    I'm an engineer and you definitely have way too much time on your hands. You should go to the range more often and break more birds.

    Chuck
     
  5. dmarbell

    dmarbell Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2006
    Messages:
    1,572
    JPM, This is the Power of Probability, but the Power of Coincidence has more meaning.

    Chuck, I shoot enough. Astronomy and light astrophysics are other hobbies of mine. It requires some understanding of macro-mathematics, as it were. When someone pointed out to me the large probability against a particular deal of 52 cards, I tried to put it into terms I could understand. It is not really possible, it it?

    I tried to do this with astronomy once, by shrinking the universe down. The Sun is 865,000 miles in diameter, compared to the Earth at 7,900 miles. If the universe were shrunken down to the point that the Sun is one foot in diameter, the Earth would be just over 0.1 inches in diameter, and it would be located about 108 feet from the Sun. Alpha Centauri, the nearest star system, would be 5,500+ miles away, about the distance from NC to Hawaii. The Andromeda Galaxy, which is 2.2 million light years away, would still be 2.8 billion miles away.

    I realized the universe is an empty place. If your head were the Sun, with a diameter of one foot, then the Earth would be about the size of a BB 108 feet away. Jupiter would be about an inch in size, about 450 feet away.

    Isn't this more fun than some of the other OT discussions going on?

    Danny
     
  6. dmarbell

    dmarbell Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2006
    Messages:
    1,572
    Eddie,

    Maybe. If something had the same odds as winning the Powerball lottery, and it was something that seemed extraordinary but possible, it would happen to someone on Earth 40 times a day, on average.

    Odds of winning the Powerball are 1 in 175,223,510. Population of Earth this morning about 7,090,907,900.

    See, isn't this fun? Now don't forget to go and deal yourself a miracle today.

    Danny