1. Attention: We have put together a thread with tips and a tutorial video to help with using the new software. Please take a moment to check out the thread here: Trapshooters.com Tutorial & Help Video.
    Dismiss Notice

Legit or not?

Discussion in 'Politics, Elections & Legislation' started by i_shoot, Sep 26, 2012.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. i_shoot

    i_shoot Member

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 1998
    Messages:
    433
    Don't know if this site is correct or not but it appears to give hope for November.

    i_shoot
     
  2. Stl Flyn

    Stl Flyn Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 6, 2010
    Messages:
    8,691
    I would say that is about as skewed, as a Shish Kabob. LOL
     
  3. The Stive

    The Stive Member

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 1998
    Messages:
    635
    I like the numbers. This does give us some hope for November. John
     
  4. Recoil Sissy

    Recoil Sissy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 1998
    Messages:
    2,639
    Properly designed and executed polls are remarkably accurate. Here's how they work...

    Pollsters select from groups that closely mirror likely voters. Specific individuals are randomly selected from stratified representative sample groups. The groups are defined by age, income, geographical location, religious faith - if any, party affilication - if any, and a whole host of other factors.

    The specific number of individuals taken from each sample group is determined by the pollster's model. Models are frequently based on results from prior elections. Here's the rub. Different polls use different models and some of those models are more accurate than others.

    For example, many of the polls we currently see are based on 2008 election results. In 2008 an unusually large number of young and minority voters cast ballots. Models based on the 2008 model assume a similar turnout for these groups in 2012.

    There is evidence to suggest some dewey eyed idealistic young voters have been disappointed and turned off by obummer. There's more evidence to suggest minority turnout in 2012 will be closer to their historic averages in elections prior to 2008.

    One school of thought runs something like this....

    1. Since young and minority voters overwhelmingly supported obummer, any poll that over reprsents those groups by some 'X' amount will show obummer with a 'X' percent lead that won't materialize on November 6th, 2012.

    2. A significant majority of voters claiming to be undecided this late in the game will vote for the challenger. Otherwise, those voters would already be included as decided voters supporting the incumbent.

    Add those two points together and the theory says obummer's actual numbers are lower than many polls are reporting. We'll see in November.

    sissy
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.