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Lead Shot Price Question

Discussion in 'Uncategorized Threads' started by DanR, Nov 5, 2008.

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  1. DanR

    DanR TS Member

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    I've been watching the price of lead (mostly) declining on http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/lead_historical.html. I've been trying to figure out how the lower price of lead (today at about $.67/lb) will eventually translate to lower shot prices. Can anyone remember what 25 lbs of lead shot was selling for back between October of 2004 and May of 2005? Spot lead prices were pretty consistent back then at about $.48/lb. If someone could tell me that, then I can SWAG an estimate of what lead shot should cost with lead at 67 cents/lb.

    Thanks,
    Dan R.

    P.S. If you want to watch a video of pheasant hunting, check out my website at the URL above. It wasn't the greatest hunting because my dog was having a bad day with the heat and arthritis, but the video is still better than most of the junk on Youtube.
     
  2. Obs

    Obs TS Member

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    Dan:

    Check the link above (hope it works)
     
  3. DanR

    DanR TS Member

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    Thanks for the link. However, I already have a source of lead cost at http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/lead_historical.html. That's where I came up with the cost/lb. of lead that I mentioned in my original post. What I am looking for is the cost of lead SHOT during the time frame of October of 2004 to May of 2005. I figure that if I can calculate the ratio of:

    Cost of Lead Shot in 2004 to 2005 / spot price of lead in 2004 to 2005

    I can apply that same ratio to the current spot price to estimate what the price of a 25# bag of lead shot will settle at when dealers work through their current inventory and start buying shot that reflects more current prices of lead.

    Thanks,
    Dan R.
     
  4. wolfram

    wolfram Well-Known Member

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    The ratio won't work on spot prices because we are in a period where there is a bunch of shot on the market that was made with high priced lead. Vendors don't want to lower their prices until they sell the high cost stuff and replace it with lower cost material. (no one likes to loose money) Problem is, most shot consumers aren't buying the high priced shot because they can get loaded ammo for less money. Kind of like gasoline, the prices jump up very quickly but come down very gradually never returning to where they started.

    Right now a good price on shot is about $30/25 lbs but several places are still trying to peddle it at $50/bag. If it weren't for this inventory problem shot would be around $24 or $25 per bag.
     
  5. racer

    racer TS Member

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    I think the beginning of 06 we were paying about 13.25/bag in NE Wi Dan
     
  6. hunter44

    hunter44 Well-Known Member

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    I think that if we could all buy shot at $13.25, there would be such a run on it that the supply would quickly be exhausted. How many bags would you try to buy at that price?
     
  7. spclays1

    spclays1 TS Member

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    I'd buy one ton...80 bags at that price.........
     
  8. BD Trapshooter

    BD Trapshooter Member

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    My friends and I were talking last night an we said that we would buy a truck load at any price under $20.00 per bag. I don't know how many bags that is, but it must be alot!
     
  9. DanR

    DanR TS Member

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    Thanks ctreay!

    At $15.49 per 25# bag, that means that lead shot cost $.6196/#. Assuming that the spot price of lead was about $.48/lb. in 2005 (which I am estimating by examining the charts on Kitco) that yields a ratio of 1.29083 of shot/spot price. At recent spot prices of $.67/# for lead, that indicate that lead shot should cost about $.865/#, or $21.64 per 25# bag. However, this does not take into consideration any changes in the cost of manufacturing.

    Wolfram, I realize that inventories purchased at higher prices will work against prices dropping to that leve for awhile. However, eventually some stores will be purchasing shot at lower prices and selling it at lower prices too. When that happens, the stores trying to sell shot at higher prices will either lower their prices to move their inventory, or they won't be selling any shot. The last time I visited my local gun store, they were selling shot at $45.00/bag. I had already seen shot for sale at $32/bag at other places. You can bet that I didn't buy any shot at the local store for $45. They're great guys, and I like them, but I'm not going to pay $13 extra per bag when I can get it other places cheaper. That's the beauty of the free market system.

    Thanks,
    Dan R.
     
  10. eern67

    eern67 TS Member

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    $11 to $13 a bag
     
  11. Bird30

    Bird30 TS Member

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    BDTrapshooter That would be 44 tons or 44 x 80 bags.

    Dave
     
  12. Redman Bullets

    Redman Bullets TS Member

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    Winter Specials:
    Lead Shot for $69.00 for 50lbs delivered to your door. First 40 customers.
    Have it in stock and ready to be shipped.
     
  13. Wayne of PA

    Wayne of PA Member

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    Try to hold out buying shot as long as you can. Eventually they’ll want to move it and it will come down. The new batches of shot will definitely be lower.

    I haven’t bought shot for over two years and have approximately 6 bags left. I won’t be doing much shooting over the winter and besides I have quite few flats of Remington Gun Clubs to shoot. As soon as it gets close to the $20 range I’ll probably stock up.

    Dale
     
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