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Lead pricing for 2008

Discussion in 'Uncategorized Threads' started by grnberetcj, Aug 23, 2007.

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  1. grnberetcj

    grnberetcj Active Member

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    Lead prices set to plummet from near-record level

    By Millie Munshi and Glenys Sim Bloomberg News
    Published: August 6, 2007

    NEW YORK: Prices of lead, the best-performing commodity in 2007, have peaked and may plummet for the rest of the year, according to analysts. A supply squeeze that doubled prices will ease by the end of the year, JPMorgan Chase and UBS said.
    A British refinery run by Xstrata is increasing shipments, and companies are recycling more of the metal. Doe Run Resources, a major U.S. refiner, plan to resume full production this month after an explosion on July 13 cut production at its smelter in Missouri. Ivernia plans to resume exports from Australia.
    "The market has the potential to collapse," said Jon Bergtheil, the head of global metals strategy in London with JPMorgan. "There's a large amount of supply coming on."
    Lead will drop to $2,122 a metric ton in the fourth quarter and average $1,792 a ton in 2008, according to the median estimate of 10 banks surveyed by Bloomberg. Lead for delivery in three months reached a record $3,500 a ton on July 20 and ended at $3,280 a ton on Friday. Hedge funds, speculators, producers and consumers have outstanding bets worth $7 billion in lead on the London Metal Exchange, where benchmark prices are set. Options to sell the metal outnumber contracts to buy by almost two to one.
    "Current high prices are not fundamentally justified," Robin Bhar and Daniel Brebner, analysts in London with UBS, said in a report last week. "Traders and merchants report no actual physical shortage of metal."
    Still, inventories tracked by the London Metal Exchange have fallen 62 percent in the past year to 35,550 tons. Declining inventories may buoy prices, said William O'Neill, a partner at Logic Advisors in Upper Saddle River, New Jersey.
    Calyon, the investment banking unit of Crédit Agricole, last month raised its 2008 lead price forecast to $2,660 a ton from $1,700 a ton. Calyon cited an export tax increase by China, the world's biggest producer. "There are some serious concerns about continued market tightness that will keep the price relatively high," said Michael Widmer, head of metals research at Calyon in London. But he added, "I do doubt whether we can justify the prices we are seeing at the moment."
    After shipments resume at Ivernia and Xstrata, lead supply will outstrip demand in 2008, according to Man Financial and Natixis Commodities Markets, two members of the exchange.
    Exports from Ivernia's Magellan mine in Western Australia, which accounts for about 3 percent of global mine production, were suspended in March after elevated levels of lead were found in residents' blood. Shipments may resume by the end of the year, Ivernia said on June 28.
    In Namibia, production has been halted at Exxaro Resources's Rosh Pinah mine after a strike began on July 29. Union representatives and management are in talks to resolve, the human resources manager, Kondja Kaulinge said Thursday. The mine produces about 70,000 metric tons of lead annually.
    "You have to consider what has driven prices this year: mine delays and complications," said Bergtheil, of JPMorgan in London.
    "We think these will be resolved and the market situation won't hold."
    He said he expected the price to average $1,545 a ton in 2008.
    Gerard Burg, an energy and minerals economist in Melbourne at National Australia Bank, said: "Prices are going to correct quite sharply."
     
  2. Steve-CT

    Steve-CT TS Member

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    This is irrelevant with regard to the price of a retail product. Once the price is up - it's up and that's generally where it will be until it goes up again. There are exceptions to this rule, but not many.
     
  3. grnberetcj

    grnberetcj Active Member

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    This was for informational purposes only regarding the "Commodities Markets" and people here have asked about lead pricing. Therefore, the information is not "irrelevant" as the pricing of bulk lead will directly affect the pricing of "end use".

    Curt - Delaware
     
  4. rw993

    rw993 Active Member

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    I am about to buy shells for $39 per flat. Do you think shells will go down very much? I am afraid we are stuck with a good portion of the increase just like gas.

    RW
     
  5. ronbo142

    ronbo142 TS Member

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    This all happened in the 80's huge price increase and then a big drop. You can find reports online that show the rise and fall. I have to do some looking to find them but in a nutshell most of the rise in lead has been driven by speculation of future demand. Again might take awhile for the average shooter to see lower prices.

    Ronbo
     
  6. stkelly62

    stkelly62 TS Member

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    LEAD IS 44.95 A BAG AT GANDER MT.THIS WEEK
     
  7. halfmile

    halfmile Well-Known Member

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    That's cheap, it was $50 here.

    HM
     
  8. BMC

    BMC Member

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    Just bought 10 flats from my local WM for 35.00 a flat..out the door. Got another 5 flats coming at that same price. With the price lead jumped up to here locally, my calculations on my reloads was $3.92 a box. I'll shoot these store boughts till the price of lead comes back down to reasonable again.
     
  9. ol 12 shooter

    ol 12 shooter TS Member

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    Your kidding yourself if you think lead will ever come back down.

    ol 12
     
  10. JH

    JH Well-Known Member

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    Magnum lead shot will come down to $13.00 a bag when gasoline comes down to $1.29 a gallon......don't hold your breath!
     
  11. Beretta687EELL

    Beretta687EELL Well-Known Member

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    Lead went up over 4 cents per lb. today. It is currently trading at nearly $1.50 per lb. Bill Malcolm
     
  12. bigclown

    bigclown TS Member

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    Just transition to 3/4 oz. loads for singles and 7/8 or 1 oz. loads for handicap. Also, encourage ATA to limit loads to these levels...we'll show 'em.
    They'll be sorry they raised their prices. Best Regards, Ed
     
  13. Jim101

    Jim101 Active Member

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    Big Tuna, The amount of lead used for shot shells don't amount to a spit in the river, In the big scheme of things.


    75% goes to batteries, At best maybe 3% goes to amunition.




    Jim
     
  14. joshif

    joshif TS Member

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    Maybe nickles will be worth a dime soon.
     
  15. Wayne of PA

    Wayne of PA Member

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    Shot will definitely come down in price. Back in the late 70’s it was almost 30.00 a bag. By 1985 Star Shot was as low as 7.00 and 8.00 a bag. Stop buying it at high prices and believe me it will definitely come down.

    Dale,
     
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