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LEAD PRICES DOWN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Discussion in 'Uncategorized Threads' started by esoxhunter, Oct 22, 2007.

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  1. esoxhunter

    esoxhunter Well-Known Member

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    I just "Googled" up Kitco.com which shows graphs of numerous metal prices. Basically it shows lead being on a slight decline in the past 30 days. As you correctly state it has dropped $.067 a pound in the past 24 hours. The big concern I can see; if the Dem's gain control of the White House and maintain control of Congress shooters might be in trouble. You can bet the EPA will "clamp down" on the shooting sports, which utilize lead in their ammunition. Ed
     
  2. Joe Potosky

    Joe Potosky Well-Known Member

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    RE: Feel bad for everyone trying to sell $50.00 a bag shot if the prices fall.

    I would think price would be determined when the shot manufactures purchased lead for processing, as I imagine they buy it by the train load and purchase at least enough for several months of production at any one time.

    I imagine lead for the next several months of factory ammunition production have already been purchased, thus the rumors of 15% price increases in January.

    And, as the US dollar has been devalued, no future deals on overseas ammunition or shooting supplies.

    Would be interesting to find out how much lead is purchased at any one time by those who make lead shot, and how long that purchase keeps the manufacturing process flowing.
     
  3. phirel

    phirel TS Member

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    Hoosier Daddy- It would depend on what price the dealer bought the lead. Your dealer selling shot for $37 would have to pay $45 a bag for his next shipment. What will happen to dealers who buy lead now for $45 and the price drops?

    Joe Potosky- It would seem logical that shell manufacturers hedge and purchase part of their lead requirements in the futures market. If so, they could have already contracted for part of their demand for the next year or so.

    Pat Ireland
     
  4. webley

    webley TS Member

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    In the UK - Eley have just announced a £12 ($24) surcharge per thousand cartridges effective from today – that’s on top of other prices rises & surcharges imposed during this year.

    Even if lead prices are dropping slightly it will take some time to filter through to the system as far as loaded cartridges are concerned.

    Regards

    Russell
     
  5. shot410ga

    shot410ga Well-Known Member

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    I bought 150 lbs. yesterday, $36.95 + tax. per 25lbs.
     
  6. KelleyPLK

    KelleyPLK TS Member

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    China is sucking the life out of natural resources ! Lean Oil everything after the bubble . Hits which it will . Lead will fall Chinese cannot keep this alive much longer values are way to high . Boycott China stuff not the Grand American


    Pat Kelley
     
  7. FranzSodia

    FranzSodia TS Member

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    esoxhunter, Is it justifiable to worry about Democrats and the price of lead when we have seen the highest lead prices under a Republican administration. Forget about epa laws, our poor economy and devalued american dollar are going to continue to make shooting less affordable. I blame Bill Clinton for NAFTA and George W. Bush for allowing it to continue. There is only one thing that NAFTA has help and that is sending American jobs overseas. Pricing reloading components out of this world is a form of gun control in my eyes. But do you hear the NRA screaming about it?. No, but they should be. John Ertel
     
  8. esoxhunter

    esoxhunter Well-Known Member

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    John: If you read my response again, you will note I did not say that I felt the Dem's would raise/or had anything to do with the price of lead. I stated that when and if they gain total political control of this country; they will have the EPA enforce laws pertaining to the use of lead in the shooting sports venues. I am afraid our local shooting facilities will be in jeopardy. The EPA will place strict mandates on them and our local clubs as we know them will be forced to shut down. Be aware that people like Feinstein, Conyers, Boxer, Sarah Brady, George Soros, Jesse Jackson. Maxine Waters, Henry Waxman, Chuck Schumer and on and on and on; are surely not the friend of the gun owner. I agree George Bush is a failure and is about as conservative as his buddy Ted Kennedy; but we need to choose the "lesser of 2 evils", when it comes to the next election. It galls me to think this way; but that's what we live with today. NAFTA is not the total fault involving our jobs in this country. Yes it is a part; but the playing field is surely not "level", when we try to compete with foreign manufacturing. And you can blame our government for that. (Republican and Democrat). Ed
     
  9. FranzSodia

    FranzSodia TS Member

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    Ed, your point is taken in regard to your post and mine. I agree that typically Democrats and specfically the ones you mention are not a friend to the gun owner. As to EPA laws and regulation thats true too. However, the continued reproduction of people who have no common sense combined with the encroachment of said persons lacking common sense near gun clubs is also a frightening thought. Just take Indiana Gun Club for example. Too many rich folks (likely Democrat and Republican, but mostly un-American) moving in next to a gun club and then complaining to the point that the sporting clays range is shut down and several trap fields are removed. Our country has changed dramatically and not for the good. John
     
  10. birdogs

    birdogs TS Member

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    I recently read that futures traders expected lead to fall markedly towards the end of 2007.
     
  11. esoxhunter

    esoxhunter Well-Known Member

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    John: I spend a lot of my summers in Northern Wisconsin. The Vilas County shooting range has been in its same location "forever". For the past number of years people have been purchasing land adjacent to the range and building homes. Now many of these people are complaining about the noise factor and want the range closed. Unreal!! That's like building your home next to a race track and then complaining about the noise and congestion. Look at what's happening at Lowes Speedway in North Carolina!! They built homes, sub-divisions, schools etc. close to an existing race track and now are complaining!! It's just nuts. Ed
     
  12. lumper

    lumper TS Member

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    The only problem is that the price ya'll are looking at and are watching can drop faster than it rose but that does not mean that the cost to us as shooters will do the same.

    Once a price is up they usually stay up but and rarely drop to what they were ... nobody will ever see cheap lead again.
     
  13. jbmOU

    jbmOU Member

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    Lead prices will come down in the near future, but I doubt that we will ever see sub $20 a bag shot, I think the lowest it will come down to is $25 a bag, but I think most of us can live with that price.
     
  14. GoldEx

    GoldEx Active Member

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    Most of us can live with that price??? Man you have been brainwashed!! That's like saying that gas at $2.75 is a bargain after taking it in the shorts for a while at $3.25. If the price of lead drops substantially, and lead shot is still at a level that folks are not willing to pay, the price will continue to drop until it has reached a level that people will pay, or, the shot makers will go out of business. Simple economics. Just don't buy it!

    Jeff
     
  15. esoxhunter

    esoxhunter Well-Known Member

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    Hey Jeff: Look at the price of cigarettes. Many people to include myself quit when the price went nuts. Many still "feed the system". AND I quit in 1975 when they were $.50 a pack!! Once a price stabilizes you either buy or quit. $25 shot is not that out of line when factoring all the costs involved. (Fuel being the major cost factor) If, as you state, some shotmakers "go out of business"; guess how much shot will rise when there is limited competition?? ED
     
  16. shannon391

    shannon391 Active Member

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    No one has the crystal ball, when gold was 1,000 per ounce in the eighties no one thought it would bottom to $240 in the 90's. One of the most respected names in silver told me five years ago, "You will never see silver over $5.00 in your life time". Silver is about $14.00 currently.

    I remember pleading to my finacial planner about eight years ago to move some of the 401K into metals and oil, after about two hours of explaining to me how bad my gut feeling was about investing into these options, I gave in to the finacial wizard and put our money into better prospects like realestate.
     
  17. hubcap

    hubcap TS Member

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    I've read up on the lead market a bit recently. A couple of interesting points -

    1. The Chinese while a large consumer of lead actually produce more than they use and export the rest. The cost of the their exported lead has gone up due to tariffs.

    2. 97% of the "new" lead produced in the US comes from Missouri.

    3. We re-use through recycling about 5 or 6 times more lead annually than comes from "new" production.

    Short term inventories of lead are increasing and lead futures are coming down, but demand is expected to increase. However, with the current price of lead production is ramping up and supply is expected to increase.

    We will not likely see short term prices fall, but long term we can expect the price of lead to come back down.

    FWIW

    hubcap
     
  18. over the hill

    over the hill Active Member

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    Saw lead at my local club Made in Peru. If the prices hold competition will eventually bring them down..Lead must be mined in a lot of countries. I suppose environmental restrictions dictate price as well. Exceptions being Russia and China.
    Lets not panic just yet. Gerald
     
  19. Pull & Mark

    Pull & Mark Well-Known Member

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    Webley, How much are your premium shells compared to ours of here in the US. Likewise with the economy loads as well.Is your surcharge like a lead disposal type fee. We pay here about $6.50 a box for Win AA's or STS's, with the economy loads at about $4.50 a box. Of course you can find sales for less if you hunt. Just interested in your prices there with the current exchange added in. Thank You in advance. Break-em all. Jeff
     
  20. webley

    webley TS Member

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    Jeff,

    The surcharge is nothing to do with a “disposal fee” – it’s just a price rise by another name. The word ‘surcharge’ implies the extra cost is temporary (which it probably isn’t) so the manufactures’ think it sounds better putting it that way.

    In October 2006 the cartridges I mostly use (which are Eley’s premium brand) cost £140 per 1000 ($280), now one year later they cost around £195 per 1000 ($390). I’m able to get premium cartridges from Italian manufactures cheaper than I can get British made ones (which suggests that not all of the recent price increases here in the UK are lead related).

    It’s still possible to get ‘economy loads’ for around £125 per thousand ($250).

    Eley recently increased the price of their bismuth cartridges by around 15%; a rise for which there is little justification. Cartridge prices have been very competitive in the UK for many years & we suspect we are now are seeing cartridge companies increase their profit margins a little hidden by the necessary rise due to lead prices.

    Regards

    Russell
     
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