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How about some data?

Discussion in 'Shooting Related Threads' started by Pocatello, Jul 13, 2010.

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  1. Pocatello

    Pocatello Active Member

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    There is a hot thread going on right now about creating longer yardage at the Grand only. In that thread Pat Ireland made the following post:

    " Jerry- It can take some extrapolation, but if you look at the scores of the smaller shoots reported in Trap and Field, it does not appear to me that 27 yard shooters dominate. The first page I opened showed that on 4-11 at McCook GC (Neb.) the scores required to win the shorter yardage groups was greater than the score required to win the long yardage group. This pattern is common at smaller shoots, but not at the Grand the last few years.

    "When thinking about any rules changes, I first consider two points. First, how would the change affect a class B, 22 yard shooter who shoots 2000 birds a year. Next, I consider how the change would affect a two trap club that has four shoots a year and attracts about 25 shooters for each shoot.

    "Pat Ireland"

    Let me be very clear from the start that I have the highest respect for Pat's contributions, both on this site and to the sport as a former ATA Delegate from Virginia. However I have long felt that there is a great regional difference in ATA shoots as far as who dominates the smaller shoots. I started shooting over thirty years ago in SW Michigan, then moved to Idaho twenty-six years ago. I immediately noticed the difference in the proportion of shooters at long yardage, proportion of shooters who played the money, and the like. I'd like to get some real data here on "small" shoots, i.e. not the Grand, regional Grands, or Zone shoots, but the typical weekend club shoots. The following is from the handicaps at the Pocatello Trap Club for the last year:

    Our biggest shoot each year is our annual Gun Shoot, which runs Thursday through Sunday in mid-August. We throw 1,100 targets, and give away sixteen rifles as prizes, so draw a fairly big crowd. "Top other score" means the highest score shot from less than 27 yards.

    First Handicap, August 13, 105 shooters, top 27-yard score 98 (two), top other score 97 (23.5 yards).

    Second Handicap, August 14, 142 shooters, top 27-yard score 99, top other score 97(23 yards).

    Third Handicap, August 15, 164 shooters, top 27-yard score 97 (three), top other score 96 (22 yards).

    Fourth Handicap, August 16, 155 shooters, top 27-yard score 98, top other score 97 (three, 22, 23.5, and 25.5 yards).

    Fifth Handicap, August 16, 156 shooters, top 27-yard score 99, top other score 98 (21 yards).

    Our next shoot was a one-day shoot in February.

    Handicap, February 6, 28 shooters, top 27-yard score 96, top other score 94 (21.5 yards).

    Our next shoot was a one-day shoot in March.

    Handicap, March 6, 32 shooters, top 27-yard score 96, top other score 97 (22.5 yards).

    Our next shoot was a one-day shoot in April. It was a miserable day with a near blizzard, and fewer than fifteen shooters. Unfortunately I don't have the data on this computer.

    Our next shoot was a two-day shoot in June.

    First Handicap, June 19, 40 shooters, top 27-yard score 97, top other score 97 (23.5 yards).

    Second Handicap, June 20, 36 shooters, top 27-yard score 98, top other score 98 (21 yards).

    Third Handicap, June 20, top 27-yard score 99, top other score 96 (23 yards).

    Our next shoot was a two-day affair this past weekend.

    First Handicap, July 10, 33 shooters, top 27-yard score 97, top other score 97 (two, 21.5 and 25 yards)).

    Second Handicap, July 11, 28 shooters, top 27-yard score 96, top other score 99 (25.5 yards).

    Third Handicap, July 11, 29 shooters, top 27-yard score 95, top other score 96 (two, 23.5 and 26.5 yards).

    I think this is pretty typical for my club. If the 27-yarders don't win outright (which they do most of the time), they are within a target or two of the top. Also note that every winning score earned a score punch anyway.

    I'd like to see data from other "small" shoots posted.
     
  2. stokinpls

    stokinpls Well-Known Member

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    My question would be, What was the yardage of the "top other score"? Maybe those runnerups (in most cases) have been overpunched. If they were in a yard or two they maybe would have picked up a target or two. It's always been too easy to get punched back to non-competitiveness. Punch the winners and let all of the "runnerups" come back next week and slug it out again.
     
  3. Pocatello

    Pocatello Active Member

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    The data in the first post have been expanded to include information stokinpls requested.
     
  4. phirel

    phirel TS Member

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    Pocatello- Near the end of every issue of Trap and Field you can get the data you requested for a 30 day segment. The July issue has the winning scores and yardage group scores every shoot held from Apr. 16 to May 16. There could be more data than you want. The yardage groups are given but it is necessary to look up the yardage of the high score. A quick scan of these scores suggests that a handicap score of 90 to 95 will win a lot of trophies.

    Only one Idaho club scores was posted (Culdesac Gun Club). The handicap was only a 50 bird event with 42 entries and scores of 92%(champ), 90%(runner up) and 84%(women) won trophies. This is the kind of shoot that we must give prime consideration to when contemplating changes. The ATA could survive without the Grand but it could not survive without these smaller shoots.

    Pat Ireland
     
  5. Pocatello

    Pocatello Active Member

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    Pat, I believe you are in error when you state that Trap & Field has the scores for every shoot in that time period. They have the scores for every shoot where the scores were submitted to them in what they consider to be a timely manner and a suitable format. I have lots of personal experience where scores were submitted from my club and never appeared in Trap & Field. I also have a lot of experience in the Intermountain region where a handicap score of 90 to 95 will get you nothing more than a "Thanks for coming!".
     
  6. grunt

    grunt TS Supporters TS Supporters

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    forget more yardage. Go to a smaller shot charge. Wouldnt that do the same thing?
     
  7. phirel

    phirel TS Member

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    Pocatello- You are correct. Trap and Field only publishes the scores that are submitted, but I suspect that is most scores. I also agree that there appears to be significant geographical and seasonal differences in winning handicap scores. This could make an analysis of handicap scores nation wide rather complicated. Probably a win/no win per yardage is about the only way to look at this question. I plan to shoot a 98 in capps this Thursday at the Southern Zone. Could you calculate the probability of that being a winning score? Please do not bother with the probability of me shooting what I plan to shoot.

    Pat Ireland
     
  8. goose2

    goose2 Well-Known Member

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    At the end of the day if a 90-95 score never wins it will just mean less shooters.
    It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see the number of shooters declining as we speak. We can blame it on the bad economy but we better open are eyes and believe there are other reasons for the sports decline. This topic is another.
     
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