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Help with Gaussian Pattern Modeling

Discussion in 'Shooting Related Threads' started by UncleWray, Mar 30, 2011.

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  1. UncleWray

    UncleWray TS Member

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    I've been out of work for a while in the Great Recession (no politics, please) and I've had more time than money.

    To amuse myself without burning powder, I've been working up some Gaussian patterning models in Excel. (I'm an armchair statistician). Used the models for Gaussian beams that lasers spit out. For the 20 or so patterns I've tried, they fit the the Burrard, O&T, and Shotgun Insight data pretty well.

    Want to get to the place where I can shoot, say 5 patterns, and use a statistics model to get a reasonable idea of probability of hits as a function of the pellet density in an annulus.

    Current project is trying to find the best choke/load combo for the 28 ga. I shoot at trap. (It's my wife's Cynergy, but she lets me borrow it...). Been breaking 22/23 with it, but would like to see if there's a choke combination that would get me another bird. I shoot 3/4 oz in my BT-99 and usually do a bird better on average.

    In richer days, I've shot a bunch of patterns using quadrants, patches, etc. and realized the futility. The more you subdivide a random process like shotgun patterns, the longer it takes to make sense of it.

    Anybody out there working on some modeling? I'm also interested in processing your patterns to help validate or shoot down my model. let me know.
     
  2. joe kuhn

    joe kuhn Furry Lives Matter TS Supporters

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    Do you know about Dr. Andrew and Shotgun Insight? Check out his website above. He's the guy.
     
  3. EXFDX

    EXFDX Member

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    I agree with Joe - Dr. Jones would be the definitive work. I'm on my fourth read now. Understand you are out of work and the book is expensive. I'd be glad to loan you my copy (messed up though it is from reading) if you PM me your address and so forth. You'll need to ignore some extensive highlighting, though. ;-)

    Doc
     
  4. Unknown1

    Unknown1 Well-Known Member

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    <blockquote>"Current project is trying to find the best choke/load combo for the 28 ga. I shoot at trap... Been breaking 22/23 with it, but would like to see if there's a choke combination that would get me another bird...."</blockquote>There might be such mystical mythical combination but I'll betcha that pointing the muzzle at the right spot when you pull the trigger will work better!

    MK
     
  5. UncleWray

    UncleWray TS Member

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    How true, MK. If I put 1 1/8 oz in my BT-99, I don't miss many.

    I got on the 28 gauge kick because my wife wants to shoot trap and the only gun that really fits her well is her Br. Cynergy 28ga. (No $ for a "real" trap gun, & she really likes the Cynergy)

    Wanted to develop a trap load for her that is capable of 25 birds and wanted to see if science would help.

    I've been doing the 22/23 with the modified choke tube and Win AA 3/4 oz of 8's. Wanted to see where to go with reloads and chokes for her, but looked at the statistics and figured I'd need to shoot a couple hundred rounds of trap with it to get a good idea of what was the optimum. (My shooting at the 22/23 level adds too much variability)

    So thought I'd do a faster, cheaper experiment on the pattern board. May end up being a waste of time, and I'll just end up guessing on 8 1/2's and IM choke, but I'll probably learn something!
     
  6. joe kuhn

    joe kuhn Furry Lives Matter TS Supporters

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    Plenty of shooters have shot 9s effectively. Why not go there?
     
  7. whiz white

    whiz white Strong Supporter of Trapshooting Banned

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    You may be interested in the Berlin Wannasee German method.

    You can see this at the aabove web-site. It is near the bottom of my site's page.

    WW
     
  8. Dr A C Jones

    Dr A C Jones Member

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    The tool in the above link allows you how to determine the optimum pattern spread for a given target size, pellet count, and pattern spread.

    The only measurements you need to do are establishing what pattern spread your gun delivers at your typical target break distance.

    But even that is a lot of effort for the likely reward. For trap, generally, you want a tight pattern. With 3/4-oz you will be looking (most likely) for the tightest pattern you can get. Just put the tightest choke you have in the gun, and chances are this will be the best performance you can get. Also use the hardest shot you can get (or Rem, Fed, Win premium clay target shells).

    Unless you have serious money riding on this, there's not much to be gained by lots of measurements.

    Andrew.
     
  9. UncleWray

    UncleWray TS Member

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    Thank you Dr. Jones (both for your reply and for keeping the Shotgun Insight site running). I've used it quite a bit and found it very helpful. Really been working on this as an science/engineering curiosity, so only thing at stake is my engineering pride.

    I didn't expand in the original post--I'm trying to optimize the 28 ga for my wife to start trapshooting. (Long story, but' the only gun we have that she actually likes to shoot).

    I like to choke/load my guns very tight for trap--my BT99 either leaves a ball of smoke or a free flying bird. Can't remember the last time I split or chipped a bird. For me on the pattern optimizer, I'm aiming for a very low probablity of a missed bird due to low pattern density with the shooter skill set at 5" 95% CI. (Even though I'm not that good!)

    What I wanted to find for her was a better probability of a chip/split one pellet hit given her larger shooter skill diameter.

    In the end, probably will come out sticking in the full choke and going up to 13/16 oz 8 1/2 magnum shot. But I tend to be obsessed with the numbers and won't sleep well until I've made a good go of understanding the physics/statistics:)

    Thanks again,
    Wray
     
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