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Headed For A Double-Dip Recession? Why?

Discussion in 'Off Topic Threads' started by WS-1, Jul 22, 2012.

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  1. WS-1

    WS-1 Banned User Banned

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    In my local market area, all indicators seem to be pointing to deep poo-poo. Even the renters are starting to run late on their payments. There is no place to put money that will do better than 1%. What are you guys seeing out there? Are we headed south again?
     
  2. John Galt

    John Galt TS Member

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  3. Brian in Oregon

    Brian in Oregon Well-Known Member

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    What makes you think we ever came back from "south" in the first place? Just because Zero says we did don't make it true.
     
  4. Bisi

    Bisi TS Member

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    Around here (Indiana) the people I know are either doing real well, or are having a rough time. Seems to be no in between. It seems like nobody wants to hire, so the ones left working are getting a lot of OT and are raking in the money, and the others can't find/buy a job.

    I went to high school with a bunch of guys who got into the homebuilding/real estate/development/landlord business after school because the small town we grew up in became a "hot" suburb/bedroom community. The last 4 or 5 years has killed em, and put em out of business. I still stay in touch with some, it ain't pretty being in your late 50s and looking for work.

    I watch the auctions. In the last year I've seen more rental property come up for auction than I have ever seen in my life. I thought about buying some but after putting the pen to paper I just don't see the money. No wonder they are going out of business.

    And getting just 1% on your money? Every time I go see my 86 year old Mom she just wears me out about the low rates CDs are paying. She just had some callable preferred stock that was paying 8% get called. She asks "how am I going to replace that income?". Put it in a CD for less than 1% I guess.

    Even if you have a little money, you are hurting because it won't throw off enough to survive on. Hundred thousand dollar CD might pay you a $1K a year. A Million - $10,000 a year. You can really live large on that can't you??

    Our club has lost a lot of older shooters because they were living off their interest and now there isn't any. They still come to the club to bs and drink coffee but they ain't shootin. The only retired guys we got shooting anymore are ones with good pensions, or are the guys who are really loaded.

    Maybe we need Jimmy Carter with his 20% interest rates. I know I could retire then. LOL

    Didn't mean to ramble.

    I wonder what the stock market is going to do if it looks like Ojackass is going to get reelected??? Dam I hate to think. Maybe I should pull what I got left out?
     
  5. crusha

    crusha TS Member

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    Just wait, Bisi...if you stay alive long enough, the days of big-interest retirement income (for people who have cash) will come.



    Of course, a gallon of milk will be $128, but I'm just sayin'.
     
  6. halfmile

    halfmile Well-Known Member

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    The financial soup is very watered down but the waiter is trying to make you believe otherwise.

    Ever wonder why they stopped publishing the M1 money supply data?

    HM
     
  7. The Rock

    The Rock Active Member

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    Like the cost of living now days. Can't figure in the food you est, the energy you need to heat your home or electric to light it. The gas to travel to work and health care is now off limits too.

    What the hell do they figure the increase of the cost of living on? The increase price of a new car I guess that is about all that is left to use.

    Rock

    Jim
     
  8. Model Number 12

    Model Number 12 TS Member

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    My work schedule is day to day. While I have a few ongoing projects waiting for the next phase in the schedule, there is no backlog.

    Last week I spoke with a plumber who said he is 4 weeks out. When I asked him why he did't hire some help to catch up he told me that the cost of putting them on the books was excessive and he also didn't want to run the risk of suddenly running out of work and having to lay off the new hire.

    I know several people in their 50's that are having a difficult time finding ANY work as well, they all feel that it's their age that's working against them. "I've never had this much trouble finding a job in my entire life" a discouraged friend recently told me.

    As I look around, I just don't see a pretty picture economically; it's very unnerving. The worst part is that it isn't getting any better.

    For what it's worth, I spoken to exactly two people who say they are voting for Obama. Both of them are on public assistance.
     
  9. Setterman

    Setterman Well-Known Member

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    Some of the private owned projects were are doing are financed partially or completely by private Investors. Commercial loans are still hard to get. You need 30% to 50% down.

    We're busy now, but like many other contractors we refuse to hire because we can see another slow down coming.

    The political history, lack of action and hatred for business owner of this administration does not give business owners a positive look in the future.
     
  10. Bisi

    Bisi TS Member

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    buzzy, you think milk will be that cheap? $128 a gallon?

    16 Trillion dollar national debt is now being fianced at what percent? Record low rates. Hell I even hear talk of negative Tbill rates.

    If we ever see the Jimmy Carter rates again it will doom the dollar. 16T dollar debt being fianced at 20% - $3.2 Trillion a year just to service the debt? Wow!

    And yet I hear people on tv claim the only way to get out of this current problem is to inflate out way out.

    Too bad you can't stock up on milk.
     
  11. ImpalaBob

    ImpalaBob Member

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    We need a government that takes care of "We the People" .... not everyone else in the World! Quit giving other Countries our $$$. Get our troops HOME. Start re-building our railways and get the semis off the roads. AND MOST IMPORTANT > Require investors who purchase stocks to hold onto them for at least 10 days before they can sell. This will make stocks an INVESTMENT and take the computer programmers out of the picture. Way to many greedy people out there!!
     
  12. shot410ga

    shot410ga Well-Known Member

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    Double Dip? It's been an ongoing single dip as far as I'm concerned. Housing and auto's represent 50% of the economy. Who is buying homes and cars? Look at the appliance industry. Are they growing? Their one of the leading indicators. No new appliances equals no new construction. People generally only buy new appliances when the old one craps out.

    But,this is a world wide problem. Consider yourself lucky for living in the USA. We are doing great considering the rest of the world. Probably, the only way to solve it is another big war that affects most of the world. That has generally been the method the world has taken historically.
     
  13. wolfram

    wolfram Well-Known Member

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    Well it has to do with printing a bunch of money which has the effect of diluting the value of existing money and then having that diluted cash leave the country after only being exchanged internally a few times.

    If it makes you feel better - blame Obama, but the problem is a lot bigger and longer term than he is.

    We won't get our money back into our country until we as a country are willing to work for wages typically seen in less developed countries. Meanwhile we are still expecting to be able to get high paying jobs even though we really don't have the education, skills or drive that our hungry competitors do.
     
  14. Straight99

    Straight99 Member

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    Here is the other side of the problem. I run a range which has trap, skeet, sporting clays, rifle and pistol shooting. Our maintance man retired in April. We have tried to hire a replacement since then with no luck. I know the pay is only $10.00 per hour. We guarantee 40 hours a week year around and 50-60 hours, 6 months in the summer, 6 days a week. We have over 50 applicants out of which we have tried 4 of them. The first one quit after the first day. Said the work was to hard. The next two lasted less than a week each. The 4th one is a college student who will leave the first of september. No one else wants the job. Most have said unemployment and wellfair pay better. So now where is the problem?
     
  15. pyrdek

    pyrdek Well-Known Member

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    I think that the big international banks are also trying to do everything they can to kill any hope of recovery. I had a perfect example of their shenanigans this past weekend. Oh, and that does NOT even consider the way they fraudulently manipulated the LIBOR rates.

    Two people I know applied for a credit card, promoted by a major transportation corporation promising some side benefits for using this card when you purchase, notice I said PURCHASE, it during this special offer. The card's financial activities are handled by Barclay. Yep that is the same Barclay that just blew away what they first said was 2 BILLION dollars on a risky "investment". Then they were forced to admit that they lied about the amount of the loss. They had to admit to 4 BILLION lost. I have to wonder how much more loss they managed to successfully hide from investigators.

    Well Barclay approved one of the two applicants (history listed below) I know and rejected the other. See if you can figure who was approved and who was rejected based on the history listed.

    Person 1 has a total income of about $25,000 a year, no job and no prospect of getting a job in the near (or probably distant) future and hasn't been employed for the past 12 or so years.

    The other applicant has the following record. Credit score approximately 750, continuous employment with the same employer for going on 30 years, one current credit card which is paid off in full every moth (usually in the $1,200 to $1,800 a month range), no mortgage, guaranteed pension which can be claimed at any time but is not because he is still working, Social Security available but not being claimed because it is not yet needed, is also receiving a small pension from another employer from several years ago. This person has not defaulted or even been late on any of the credit card or student loans they co-signed for. They have no car payments and paid cash for the last vehicle they bought, about a year ago (used truck ~ $4,000 value).



    Did you figure it out yet?

    Person 1 was approved with a several thousand dollar credit limit. This is a credit card and not a debit card.

    Person 2 was denied because of claims of not enough recent credit activity and to LOW a record of credit card payments.

    Now what this tells me is that Barclays is intentionally trying to drive people into using credit cards that Barclays knows when used by their clients (maybe SUCKERS is a better term!) will result in late payments which will raise the interest rate astronomically, and eventually result in potential bankruptcy and seizure of what assets they may have.

    Now tell me how helping out these "to big to fail" banks with Tarp and Quantitative Easing etc (also called federal manipulations) is of benefit to citizens when the banks are intentionally and with full knowledge trying to sucker more people into credit card "Scams" that they know are intended to bankrupt people?
     
  16. Joe Potosky

    Joe Potosky Well-Known Member

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    RE: Double-Dip Recession? Why?

    Businesses are bad, not enough taxes on the rich, not enough regulations, wind mills are not being built fast enough, coal mines are not being closed fast enough, federal education standards were to high, soda sizes need to be regulated, the feds not printing enough money, welfare people should not be required to work... The government is broken!
     
  17. Stl Flyn

    Stl Flyn Well-Known Member

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    Click. Instead of doing something about it, the politicians, and everyone else are to busy blaming someone else. NO COMPROMISE!!!
     
  18. Rick Barker

    Rick Barker Well-Known Member

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    What compromises should both sides contribute on what issues????
     
  19. johnboy

    johnboy Member

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    We are trying to find solutions to problems with the same thinking we used to create them. Albert E.
     
  20. W.P.T.

    W.P.T. TS Member

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    Not again, still ... WPT ... (YAC) ...
     
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