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Global Warming - No "perfect" temperature....

Discussion in 'Uncategorized Threads' started by Brian in Oregon, Apr 9, 2007.

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  1. Brian in Oregon

    Brian in Oregon Well-Known Member

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    Global Warming - No

    Global Warming - No Such Thing As a 'Perfect' Temperature<br>
    <br>
    MSN Tracking Image<br>
    MSNBC.com<br>
    Newsweek.com<br>
    No Such Thing As a 'Perfect' Temperature<br>
    <br>
    By Richard S. Lindzen<br>
    Newsweek International<br>
    <br>
    April 16, 2007 issue - Judging from the media in recent months, the debate over global warming is now over. There has been a net warming of the earth over the last century and a half, and our greenhouse gas emissions are contributing at some level. Both of these statements are almost certainly true. What of it? Recently many people have said that the earth is facing a crisis requiring urgent action. This statement has nothing to do with science. There is no compelling evidence that the warming trend we've seen will amount to anything close to catastrophe. What most commentators—and many scientists—seem to miss is that the only thing we can say with certainly about climate is that it changes. The earth is always warming or cooling by as much as a few tenths of a degree a year; periods of constant average temperatures are rare. Looking back on the earth's climate history, it's apparent that there's no such thing as an optimal temperature—a climate at which everything is just right. The current alarm rests on the false assumption not only that we live in a perfect world, temperaturewise, but also that our warming forecasts for the year 2040 are somehow more reliable than the weatherman's forecast for next week.<br>
    <br>
    A warmer climate could prove to be more beneficial than the one we have now. Much of the alarm over climate change is based on ignorance of what is normal for weather and climate. There is no evidence, for instance, that extreme weather events are increasing in any systematic way, according to scientists at the U.S. National Hurricane Center, the World Meteorological Organization and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (which released the second part of this year's report earlier this month). Indeed, meteorological theory holds that, outside the tropics, weather in a warming world should be less variable, which might be a good thing.<br>
    <br>
    In many other respects, the ill effects of warming are overblown. Sea levels, for example, have been increasing since the end of the last ice age. When you look at recent centuries in perspective, ignoring short-term fluctuations, the rate of sea-level rise has been relatively uniform (less than a couple of millimeters a year). There's even some evidence that the rate was higher in the first half of the twentieth century than in the second half. Overall, the risk of sea-level rise from global warming is less at almost any given location than that from other causes, such as tectonic motions of the earth's surface.<br>
    <br>
    Many of the most alarming studies rely on long-range predictions using inherently untrustworthy climate models, similar to those that cannot accurately forecast the weather a week from now. Interpretations of these studies rarely consider that the impact of carbon on temperature goes down—not up—the more carbon accumulates in the atmosphere. Even if emissions were the sole cause of the recent temperature rise—a dubious proposition—future increases wouldn't be as steep as the climb in emissions.<br>
    <br>
    Indeed, one overlooked mystery is why temperatures are not already higher. Various models predict that a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere will raise the world's average temperature by as little as 1.5 degrees Celsius or as much as 4.5 degrees. The important thing about doubled CO2 (or any other greenhouse gas) is its "forcing"—its contribution to warming. At present, the greenhouse forcing is already about three-quarters of what one would get from a doubling of CO2. But average temperatures rose only about 0.6 degrees since the beginning of the industrial era, and the change hasn't been uniform—warming has largely occurred during the periods from 1919 to 1940 and from 1976 to 1998, with cooling in between. Researchers have been unable to explain this discrepancy.<br>
    <br>
    Modelers claim to have simulated the warming and cooling that occurred before 1976 by choosing among various guesses as to what effect poorly observed volcanoes and unmeasured output from the sun have had. These factors, they claim, don't explain the warming of about 0.4 degrees C between 1976 and 1998. Climate modelers assume the cause must be greenhouse-gas emissions because they have no other explanation. This is a poor substitute for evidence, and simulation hardly constitutes explanation. Ten years ago climate modelers also couldn't account for the warming that occurred from about 1050 to 1300. They tried to expunge the medieval warm period from the observational record—an effort that is now generally discredited. The models have also severely underestimated short-term variability El Niño and the Intraseasonal Oscillation. Such phenomena illustrate the ability of the complex and turbulent climate system to vary significantly with no external cause whatever, and to do so over many years, even centuries.<br>
    <br>
    Is there any point in pretending that CO2 increases will be catastrophic? Or could they be modest and on balance beneficial? India has warmed during the second half of the 20th century, and agricultural output has increased greatly. Infectious diseases like malaria are a matter not so much of temperature as poverty and public-health policies (like eliminating DDT). Exposure to cold is generally found to be both more dangerous and less comfortable.<br>
    <br>
    Moreover, actions taken thus far to reduce emissions have already had negative consequences without improving our ability to adapt to climate change. An emphasis on ethanol, for instance, has led to angry protests against corn-price increases in Mexico, and forest clearing and habitat destruction in Southeast Asia. Carbon caps are likely to lead to increased prices, as well as corruption associated with permit trading. (Enron was a leading lobbyist for Kyoto because it had hoped to capitalize on emissions trading.) The alleged solutions have more potential for catastrophe than the putative problem. The conclusion of the late climate scientist Roger Revelle—Al Gore's supposed mentor—is worth pondering: the evidence for global warming thus far doesn't warrant any action unless it is justifiable on grounds that have nothing to do with climate.<br>
    <br>
    Lindzen is the Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. His research has always been funded exclusively by the U.S. government. He receives no funding from any energy companies.
    © 2007 Newsweek, Inc.<br>
    <br>
    URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17997788/site/newsweek/
     
  2. Hauxfan

    Hauxfan Well-Known Member

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    Global Warming - No

    I find it hard to believe that they can't predict the weather correctly for next week, but scientists are telling us what it's going to be 50 or a 100 years from now.

    Hauxfan!
     
  3. phirel

    phirel TS Member

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    Global Warming - No

    I do not know what a perfect temperature would be; however, I do know the temperature has not been perfect for the last week.

    Pat Ireland
     
  4. BIGDON

    BIGDON Well-Known Member

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    Global Warming - No

    April and sub freezing temps. and snow for over a week, 52" in upper MI., More snow in Cleveland. Makes global warming sound a little weak.

    Don
     
  5. sxs28ga

    sxs28ga TS Member

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    Global Warming - No

    There is no global warming in central NY - snowed last nite and its on the ground - I want global warming!!! J Mroczka
     
  6. phirel

    phirel TS Member

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    Global Warming - No

    Jim- Could global warming be the basic reason shot is now so expensive?

    Pat Ireland
     
  7. dmarbell

    dmarbell Active Member

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    Global Warming - No

    There might not be a perfect temperature, but here's a place that gets close to ideal. Hawaii.

    Average temperature
    January 72.9
    August 81.4
    overall 77.2

    from a graph I found, estimates:

    January average high 81
    Low 62

    August average high 85
    Low 65

    It's a little windy there, and the ocean temp is a bit cool for me at 74 degrees. Also, not too sure there are many good trap fields. But if I remember correctly, no poisonous snakes or mosquitoes.

    Danny
     
  8. Tailbuster

    Tailbuster TS Member

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    Global Warming - No

    I am not an alarmist by any means. I also don't pretend to know all the answers about global warming. Things I do know. We live on an incredible planet situated just perfectly from the sun and with just the right earth make-up to sustain life. That, by most calculations makes us very lonely in the universe. With all the speed and resources we can muster, we need to do everything we can to protect the earth and our atmosphere, and at the same time find that balance that allow humans to prosper. Not an easy task, to be sure. But we can think and share knowledge, and new technologies will lead us through.

    all the best,
    john
     
  9. smartass

    smartass TS Member

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    Global Warming - No

    This global warming hysteria makes as much sense as the previous "ice age" hysteria of the 70s, the "hole in the ozone layer" hysteria of the 80s and the "acid rain" hysteria.

    Those crises of the past were nothing but hot air and so is this one. In 10 years, it will be forgotten except for those who like to laugh at the gullibility of people.
     
  10. blizzard

    blizzard Active Member

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    Global Warming - No

    "Anon, that is probably why lakes everywhere have mercury in them and car dealerships deal with damaged paint on cars - no acid rain?"


    spam,


    can i see some scientific studies on the two problems you're referencing in the post above? thanks.


    brett d.
     
  11. bigdogtx

    bigdogtx Well-Known Member

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    Global Warming - No

    I was wondering if anyone took the temperature of the sun recently. If I remember from my physical science classes, the sun was constatly changing. Sun spots, hotter colder etc. It was also pointed out in Newsweek in about 1987 that the ice caps were expanding at such a rate that we were going to be engulfed by glaciers again. What happened to that????

    I wonder if you took away ALL potential profits from those shouting about the cooling and warming, if they would STILL wail about it? Just wondering??
     
  12. Setterman

    Setterman Well-Known Member

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    Global Warming - No

    How come the ice caps on Mars are melting too? (Sun a little hot?) Damn Martians should park those SUVs!

    What is a liberal Scientist without funding?......unemployed.
     
  13. dmarbell

    dmarbell Active Member

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    Global Warming - No

    Tailbuster and others,

    One of my other hobbies is astronomy. People think that our position in the universe is static, perfectly situated from the sun, perfect in the galaxy and universe. Here are a couple of layman's examples of things which blew my mind in astronomy.

    The earth's axis tilts at about 23.5 degrees to our orbital plane around the sun. This gives us our seasons. The northern point on that axis points at Polaris, the "North Star." This is why Polaris never seems to move in the sky, and is used for navigation. Our axis actually revolves at 23.5 degrees on that axis one revolution every 26,000 years (called precession of the equinoxes, or gyroscopic precession). This is like the wobble of a spinning top. In 13,000 years, the star Vega will be our "North Star."

    Our solar system is located about 2/3 of the way from the center of the Milky Way Galaxy, our home galaxy. We are located in one of the spiral arms. The galaxy revolves around its center, and takes about 250 million years to make one revolution. The galaxy itself is moving through the universe. For example, relative to the universe, the galaxy is moving at a speed of about 370 miles per sec in the same direction that the constellation Leo lies relative to the earth; it is also moving at about 60 miles per sec (c.100 km per sec) relative to the center of mass of the Local Group of galaxies (35 nearby galaxies).

    So, in other words, the Earth is never in the exact same place in the universe at any two points in time.

    The Earth is 93 million miles from the sun – on average. The Earth’s orbit is actually a slight ellipse which varies from season to season. The Earth rotates on its axis approximately once every 24 hours. However, the Earth rotates slightly slower during the Northern Hemisphere’s winter than other times of the year. That is because the larger land mass of the Northern Hemisphere accumulates ice, and acts like a skater with arms extended, as opposed to arms retracted.

    So, now that I’ve put everyone to sleep… There is nothing constant about our world, the solar system, our galaxy or the universe.

    Danny
     
  14. Beretta Blue

    Beretta Blue TS Member

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    Global Warming - No

    OK, one of the first mass histeria items of note put out by the people who make a living selling "science" and the news paper people who need circulation was the predicted new ice age in the 70's, asbestos in the early 80's.....then, radon in the late 80's, now mold........whats next?....Global warming. I'm pretty sure the "sky is falling."
     
  15. wy_don

    wy_don TS Member

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    Global Warming - No

    Very well done. You must have went to OSU.
    Don Ewing
     
  16. Big Al 29

    Big Al 29 TS Member

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    Global Warming - No

    40-50 years does not matter.

    The new fear arising is the fact the Mayan calendar ends on December 21st 2012. Cataclysmic event "Doomsday". Apparently they new more about the calendar than anyone ever will... Another story to scare the shit out of people.

    Just like pre-2000 when the end of the world was to occur when the computers all crashed.

    Just like the Great Pyramid of Giza is really a giant calendar. Supposedly learned scientists said if you counted the steps in the Great Room it ended at 2000 where a hole was located. Apparently we all were supposed to die then as well.

    Its all garbage.

    Fact #1 is... weathermen, climatologists, politicians, etc... can not accurately tell the weather for tomorrow so how in the hell can they predict what will happen 40-50 years from now.

    Fact #2 is... Co2 levels follow temp. changes. Temp rises THEN Co2 levels rise not the other way around.

    Fact #3 is... gas prices are rising and there is no shortage of oil, in fact there is a surplus.

    I wish governments, scientists etc... spent more time on this and building more refineries than spending millions to drill ice core samples then tell us that we are all going to die if we keep burning fossil fuels. Then these bastards do nothing to generate interest to develop engines that do not use them.

    AHHH!!! Its all a political ploy to scare the shit out of us but do nothing to alleviate the dependency of fossil fuels.

    When you think about it, what the hell are we supposed to do??? No heat, no electricity, no cars, no planes????

    One last thing. There was an expedition to the south pole to see the effects on Global warming. The expedition didn't make it too far and had to stop due to RECORD LOW temps. ?????????????????
     
  17. phirel

    phirel TS Member

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    Global Warming - No

    Danny- Thank you for the refresher post. You did add support to the concept that the only thing constant in the universe is change.

    Big Al 29- You stated that as temperature increase, atmospheric CO2 levels also increase. I am having great difficulty understanding this statement. I can visualize how metabolic CO2 could increase with higher temperatures but this would also be directly off set by increased CO2 depletion by photosynthesis. Can you help me understand your statement?

    Pat Ireland
     
  18. Rico46

    Rico46 TS Member

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    Global Warming - No

    No perfect temp in Wisconsin today..its currently 31 degrees and prediction is for 4 to 8 inches of snow this evening!

    Rick
     
  19. Trappy12

    Trappy12 Active Member

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    Global Warming - No

    I'm going to clear up a common misconception about global warming. It doesn't entirely mean literally that the Earth is warming up. It means irregular weather patterns...for now at least.
    -Trappy
     
  20. Trappy12

    Trappy12 Active Member

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    Global Warming - No

    tom...scientists are crazy...........
    -Trappy
     
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