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Economy

Discussion in 'Uncategorized Threads' started by cubancigar2000, Jun 28, 2008.

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  1. cubancigar2000

    cubancigar2000 Well-Known Member

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    We are heading where most of us today can't fathom. It will get a lot worse
     
  2. crusha

    crusha TS Member

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    "Creative destruction." The pundits love it.


    Prepare for a list of people telling you how good it is, however. No matter how many losers there are, somebody will always be winning...and bragging about it.
     
  3. nspktr1

    nspktr1 TS Member

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    My folks are both still alive and remember the depression well. Prices weren't high like they are today, but there was no money to buy--for the common folk. Dad says this one will be worse because prices will stay high and there will be no money, plus 90% of the population now has a significant debt load. To many people making $1500 mortgage payments and leasing two cars.

    My grandmother died a couple of years ago and I remember her telling stories about how tough it was to feed her family. She was a crack shot though and the boy's ate many a 'Hoover Hog'.
     
  4. Tripod

    Tripod Well-Known Member

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    Iowa man!!
    energy and food costs are eating into every thing.
     
  5. grnberetcj

    grnberetcj Active Member

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    I had a good week in the stock market.....

    My confidence is high.

    I'm making money. I'm spending money. Shooting the MD state shoot and just booked a trip to DisneyWorld for my grandkids and daughters.

    Just remember not to participate in the "6P principle".

    Curt
     
  6. phirel

    phirel TS Member

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    Economic predictions on this site are based on nothing. I do recognize one poster who was certain las Spring that shot would be well over $50 by mid Summer. But, the price of shot has dropped. Many speculators are betting the price of oil will go up, but if we announce that we will finally drill some new wells, that will not happen.

    Television commentators have convinced many people that the economy is much worse than it actually is. If the GNP would decline steadily for 6 months, we could have a recession but that has not happened yet.

    Last week I completed an appraisal for a mid sized manufacturing company (180 employees). The company has a strong market, sales are good and it wants to borrow money for expansion. My appraisal will not help them because they have one major problem. They can't get enough qualified workers to take care of their present production needs and I don't see how they could expand. The company currently pays a little over the average wage for the area.

    Pat Ireland
     
  7. blizzard

    blizzard Active Member

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    Read Pat's last paragraph REALLY well. Skilled workers in this country are experiencing flush times. Quit discouraging your kids from entering the trades!
     
  8. crusha

    crusha TS Member

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    I doubt that Pat is talking about trades (he can of course clarify). Trades always do well, but it's more likely that what Pat's midsize manufacturing company needs, are just plain bodies to stand on the floor and make parts (am I wrong, Pat?).


    I'll take another gaze into my crystal ball, and predict that their customers probably expect prices for the products that are "world-competitive," meaning not significantly higher than what they could make it for somewhere else, after transport costs are figured in. For that reason, they cannot pay wages that would have eager people streaming into their doors to work, because then they wouldn't be competitive. To be blunt, they probably need college kids, women who want a secondary income (who already have a husband making the main income), and people who just flat-out are not qualified for anything else, for whatever reason.


    In short - they need a very special, specific kind of person - someone who doesn't have a criminal background, no drug problems...and yet, who isn't very educated and doesn't have many other prospects. And they are having trouble finding it.


    I would bet this example does not reflect so much that the economy is either "booming" or "not booming," but rather that manufacturing in this country increasingly needs "marginal" employees to maintain their cost structure in the global market...and quality "marginal" employees are simply getting harder to find, as people realize they need to reach higher to make it these days.


    It's a problem that I know most all manufacturing companies face. HR professionals who have been in the business a while will tell you that 30 years ago, you could put an ad in the paper for an HS educated person to take a factory job, and out of 100 responses, 60 or 70 of them would be potential good candidates. Now that ratio has flipped, and you can figure that out of 100 responses (if you can even get that many), fully 80 percent in some cases are simply unemployable, due to criminal background, can't pass a drug screen, poor language skills (you should see how companies bend over backwards to get around that one), etc. It's getting so hard to find these people, that most manufacturing companies are contracting the search out to "temp labor" companies, because they have a plant to run and simply can't spend all their own time searching for the candidates.


    Manufacturing needs a very specific, "decent yet uneducated" type of individual. Those people are simply deciding to do something else. It's not 1972 anymore. They are hard to find - and much of what is left behind are basically druggies, crooks, and people who can't speak a lick of English.


    Don't shoot the messenger...
     
  9. Delbert

    Delbert TS Member

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    "The sky is falling, the sky if falling"

    Chicken Little
     
  10. Ahab

    Ahab Well-Known Member

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    "Creative Destruction" is corret. Seems that the Media is trying it's best!

    BUT...it seems that the big money people must know something that we don't. Yesterday I passed the new FeEx facilitity in San Bernardino...it's got to be a 1/2 mile long! In Riverside and San Bernardino counties, commecial construction is going on, non stop! New buildings going up all over that area!

    OK, the housing market sucks...but that is primarily due to people using "creative" financing and buying property that they could not afford, then the 'bubble' burst! Once housing gets back down to an affordable level (and lots of people losing their life savings) there will be a quick turn around.
     
  11. R.Kipling

    R.Kipling Well-Known Member

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    Here's something that applies to both shooting and personal economy: "we all have a single-process mind, and, you move in the direction of your dominate thought."

    FYI,
    Kip
     
  12. stokinpls

    stokinpls Well-Known Member

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    And were almost out of oil too!
     
  13. Mr Newbius©

    Mr Newbius© TS Member

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    Green Beret Curt sir ... grandchildren and daughters? You didn't book for the son in law(s) sir? Maryland state shoot? Your like a neighbor and um ... uh ... ya wanna go trap shooting dad or is it possibly to early to call ya dad yet?

    You wouldn't have to pay for a trip to Disneyworld for me but ya could pay for my shells ... dad. ;-)))
     
  14. JBrooks

    JBrooks TS Member

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    Some people look at glass and say its half empty, other say its half full. The winners are the ones that say "give me a glass so I can go fill it".
     
  15. timb99

    timb99 Well-Known Member

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    JBrooks,

    "Some people look at glass and say its half empty, other say its half full."

    Not engineers.

    An engineer would say, "the glass is twice as big as it needs to be."
     
  16. chuckles

    chuckles Member

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    Pat you need to come out of your protective self imposed cocoon...into the real world.....

    Millions of Americans have lost their jobs and are losing their jobs to the new Global Economy....to $1.00 an hour workers in China, India, Mexico, Indonesia, others......

    It is all documented and there to see if one wants to look it up on the Internet....

    Wall Street is in Denial...

    Government is inept...

    MSM is playing dumb...

    The former Middle Class is in dire straights...

    The Perenenial poor are laughing their collective ass's off...

    The well off are complacent, indifferent, callous...

    The retired are...well... retired.

    I could go on....


    Wait everything is ok, Pat Ireland knows about a business of 180 workers that wants to expand...

    OK......
     
  17. SeldomShoots

    SeldomShoots Active Member

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    Curt, what is the 6P principle?

    Good one chuckles, now I know how you got your name.

    John E.
     
  18. stokinpls

    stokinpls Well-Known Member

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    Here's one person who really cares.

    Gore's Home Still Guzzling Energy

    Tuesday, June 17, 2008 10:48 PM

    In the year since Al Gore took steps to make his home more energy-efficient, the former vice president’s home energy use surged more than 10 percent, according to the Tennessee Center for Policy Research.

    In the past year, Gore’s home burned through 213,210 kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity, enough to power 232 average American households for a month.

    In February 2007, "An Inconvenient Truth," a film based on a climate change speech developed by Gore, won an Academy Award for best documentary feature. The next day, the Tennessee Center for Policy Research uncovered that Gore’s Nashville home guzzled 20 times more electricity than the average American household.

    After the Tennessee Center for Policy Research exposed Gore’s massive home energy use, the former Vice President scurried to make his home more energy-efficient. Despite adding solar panels, installing a geothermal system, replacing existing light bulbs with more efficient models, and overhauling the home’s windows and ductwork, Gore now consumes more electricity than before the “green” overhaul.

    Since taking steps to make his home more environmentally-friendly last June, Gore devours an average of 17,768 kWh per month –1,638 kWh more energy per month than before the renovations – at a cost of $16,533. By comparison, the average American household consumes 11,040 kWh in an entire year, according to the Energy Information Administration.

    In the wake of becoming the most well-known global warming alarmist, Gore won an Oscar, a Grammy and the Nobel Peace Prize. In addition, Gore saw his personal wealth increase by an estimated $100 million thanks largely to speaking fees and investments related to global warming hysteria"

    Now click on the link. It's all clear now.
     
  19. chuckles

    chuckles Member

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    Staying on topic...This is IMO the straw that will break the proverbial Camel's back.....Credit card defaults......

    Once the former Middle Class and 18 to 35 year olds figure out that they can walk away from their Credit card debt with virtually no consequence other than a poor credit rating...think of Home Mortage foreclosure's....then it will be the final straw, it will cause a run on the banking system similar to the 1929 SM crash....it will be Catastrophic to say the least.

    Think in terms of 60 or 70 million credit cards in default...each to the tune of $12 to $16000.00....you do the math.

    I think this will come about within 2 years at the outside.....

    regards

    PS One word of advice to all.....Get liquid in 2008.
     
  20. chuckles

    chuckles Member

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    172000 job layoffs, give or take a few hundred, for month of May 2008...a 318% increase over April 2008...

    USA economy is presently very sick...

    regards
     
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