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Doggone that NAFTA thing. It' saving our butts.

Discussion in 'Uncategorized Threads' started by JBrooks, Jun 30, 2008.

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  1. JBrooks

    JBrooks TS Member

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    Quick, run to the window and you can hear the trade imbalance doomsayers wailing like women. For a short answer for our less economic inclined readers, our free trade agreements and a re-evaluation of the dollar to a more realistic exchange level with our trading partners has probably saved our butts from a recession by allowing our exports to grow at a rate that is 6 times faster than our imports growth. From the Financial Times:

    "The improved US trade performance of the past two years is due partly to the substantial, if lagged, restoration of the country’s price competitiveness as the dollar declined by a trade-weighted average of 25-30 per cent since early 2002, reversing most of its excessive run-up during the previous seven years that produced unsustainable current account deficits exceeding 6 per cent of GDP."

    ....

    "The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s new Economic Outlook projects that more than 80 per cent of all US growth in 2008-09 will derive from continued strengthening of its external position. Exports have been climbing at an annual rate of about 8 per cent, at least six times as fast as imports. Unless domestic demand takes an unexpected further fall in the quarters ahead, reverse coupling of the global economy will thus have prevented the US recession that was so widely predicted and feared."
     
  2. Dove Commander

    Dove Commander TS Member

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    We have a manufacturer in my home town that ships large custom equipment (made in the good ole' USA) to foreign countries. He told me he has to wait 2 months to get a ship for a deal to Russia. Exports are saving us right now.
     
  3. R.Kipling

    R.Kipling Well-Known Member

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    Let's present the contra-argument, just for giggles.

    We all need a third ear when listening to anyone with statistics. I used to say that figures lie, and liar's figure, but that's not PC, so, how about beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Two years of single digit growth in a limited segment of the market hasn't come near balancing out the 12 years of manufacturing destruction, inflation and unbridled greed that NAFTA helped trigger.

    Oil is, and will be the 'unexpected further fall' in the times ahead, so don't expect too much of a trend reversal. On the brighter side, transportation costs just might get so high that manufacturing may have no choice but to return to it's regional markets, I hope so.

    Last, why do we have to BE a third-world nation, to trade with third-world nations?

    OK, I'm spitting the hook.......

    Kip
     
  4. JBrooks

    JBrooks TS Member

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    "Last, why do we have to BE a third-world nation, to trade with third-world nations?"

    If you have ever been to a real third world nation you wouldn't make that statement.
     
  5. CharlesR1100

    CharlesR1100 TS Member

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    Free trade is a two edged knife. If we do not have a competitive advantage, we lose. But, if we have one, we win. Do we have one?

    Our automotive industry is undergoing a massive design change. The US leader is GM.

    GM probably will default on its '09 bond payments. OUCH! Will probably be forced to dump the goofy Hummer and fat boy SUV lines. OK with me.

    But GM does have a plan. GM is hoping its radical new Volt car will save its future. Due in 2010. Battery operated with perhaps a gas assist.

    GM is assuming (read hoping) the price of a gal of gas will in 2010 be approx $10.00/gal for the venture to work. But if gas stabilizes at $5 or $6, GM faces huge loss because the Volt will not sell. (Can only go limited miles between charges.) So GM has a big vested interest in raising gas prices at the pump.

    If GM is right, it will have a competitive advantage over Ford, Chrys, Toyota, et al. All other car mfrs are behind the GM design curve at this point. But, if GM is wrong... And that is your basic free market.
     
  6. R.Kipling

    R.Kipling Well-Known Member

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    I've spent over three years in third-world nations, and traveled through much of South America as recently as 4 years ago, you? If you go to some parts of WV, NC, MS. AL. and even southern AZ. and Cal. you can see exactly what I'm talking about. Benefits of NAFTA don't outweigh it's negatives. And, it started with the 807 Initiative, that sent our textile industry to the Caribbean.

    You only make an Ass out of yourself when you assume something, JB.

    Kip
     
  7. chuckles

    chuckles Member

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    America has lost its manufacturing base, it started, in ernest, in the early 1980's we essentially gave it away...to then third world countries ie Mexico, China, Indonesia, India ....

    They are now 1st world manufacturing centers of the 1st order...and we are left holding the proverbial bag...all in the name of Globalization.!!!!!

    America has been sold down the drain by the people that run it, our own Government...

    The bureaucratic, inept, bungling fools in Congess and the Senate...and we keep re-electing them because.....

    because.....
     
  8. H82MIS

    H82MIS TS Member

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    Start the revolution,,I'm ready,,,
     
  9. halfmile

    halfmile Well-Known Member

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    The New World Order marches along, whether we want it or not.

    Those who are greasing the wheels consider themselves better than those ground under.

    HM
     
  10. JBrooks

    JBrooks TS Member

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    Sorry Kipper, the USA has a great standard of living even in the worst of it compared to the true third world. I didn't assume anything and based on your response, now don't have to.
     
  11. R.Kipling

    R.Kipling Well-Known Member

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    The US has a wild standard of living, I'm not so sure that it is great, in the real sense of the term. But, just the same, I enjoy it more than most. That still doesn't mean that it isn't failing, rather than advancing.

    And, I'm sure that I wasn't the only one that noticed that you, again, dodged the empirical question. Just where have you gained so much experience? Perhaps you could be Obama's VP, that way the US could be blessed with, not one, but two Messiah's to correct all us sinners?

    I visit this site for reasons other than this, and I learned long ago that I can't teach a pig to sing, so this will be my last word on this subject.

    Kip
     
  12. ljutic73

    ljutic73 Well-Known Member

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    I spent 4 days in Serbia in a poor rural area visiting the village my wife's grandparents came from 100 years ago....we witnessed poverty, the oppression of a police state (it still is...commies out of power or not) and came away extremely thankful to live in Canada. I know some on this site like to hate on Canada but trust me...the USA and Canada are the best places on earth to live....now if we could just get beer here that's as good as the stuff I drank in Austria and Germany, we'd really have it made!!!
     
  13. crusha

    crusha TS Member

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    Ljutic,


    Until those fools learn to drink that beer COLD, however, they will always fall short of the glory.
     
  14. halfmile

    halfmile Well-Known Member

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    Slick Willy was a Rhodes Scholar. Cecil B. Rhodes was a leading proponent of the NWO.

    Connect the dots.

    HM
     
  15. ljutic73

    ljutic73 Well-Known Member

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    Buzz...every beer I had over there (and I had quite a few, in four countries, was served cold...just the way it's supposed to be!!
     
  16. KENENT1

    KENENT1 Active Member

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    It is killing the manufacturing base in the US, I own and operate a screw machine shop, our work load and customers have dropped off like rats jumping a sinking ship, large orders that we used to run are now being purchased from China and shipped to the US cheaper than we can purchase the material and plate the parts.

    We have went from 2,500 to 50,000 piece orders to 1 to 1000 piece orders, this has required us to retool and purchase cnc equipment, almost like starting over building a new business. It is really tough to do in this day and age.

    Many of the really large shops have set up shops in China and Mexico to take advantage of the cheap labor, and NO benefits.

    Try offering 8 to 10 employees a descent wage and insurance, and paid holidays, while paying unemployment insurance, rent on your building, Medicare, liability insurance, machine insurance, license plates to haul your product, high fuel prices, tooling, material, heating fuel, electricity, etc., etc., etc........While you are competing with shops outside our borders.

    None of this even eludes to the other problems that arise like, the EPA, OSHA, etc., ....all it takes is for some a$$hole disgruntled employee to call them and give a false claim to start the investigation, and no matter what they find you can count on spending a couple of thousand dollars, just because you did something the employee didn't like, maybe trying to show a profit.

    So if you want me to tell you what I really think...yes NAFTA does keep prices in the US down, BUT...at the cost of how many jobs??? Just because people fall off the unemployment rolls doesn't mean they all found other jobs.


    WOW....I feel better already!! lol

    tony
     
  17. JohnBT

    JohnBT TS Member

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    "GM is hoping its radical new Volt car will save its future. Due in 2010. Battery operated with perhaps a gas assist."

    I read an article on this project a week or so ago. GM does not have a battery to meet the specs for this vehicle and is not close to solving the battery problem. In order to meet their 2010 goal they are designing the car while trying to solve a battery problem that no one else has yet solved.

    Can they make a battery that is light enough, reliable enough and will deliver the needed miles between charges? Will GM go belly up on this one? The article made it sound like the battery engineers are already exhausted and pulling their hair out and it's only 2008.

    John
     
  18. KelleyPLK

    KelleyPLK TS Member

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    YOU NEED TO GET INTO A CONSERVATIVE FRAME OF MIND THATS THE WAY THING WILL GO ! DONT BELIEVE THIS DRAIN IS GOING TO KEEP GOING OR TAXES WILL SUCK YOU UNDER SOON !


    KELLEYPLK
     
  19. snowbird

    snowbird TS Member

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    Low wages bring higher crime, all low wage areas are full of crime. That is the new legacy you are bringing to all of your neighborhoods in the US. by looking for third world labor costs.

    Last week when I was in the US. I was reading the paper that you get at the hotel, (I forgot which one maybe USA Today). It said in the 70's there were 80.000 GM workers in Michigan, mostly in the Detroit-Lansing-Flint area. There are 8000 now, 72,000 jobs that are gone forever. This is directly the result of buying foreign cars. Make sure you buy American made cars.

    Terry.
     
  20. JBrooks

    JBrooks TS Member

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    You're right Terry.

    Which cars are made in America? LOL

    A lot of those MI jobs left MI because of Democrat politicians making Detroit a cess pool and the whole state an economic disaster zone. They left for KY, TN and the Carolinas where there is still some sanity in government.

    However, Obama is going to fix this NAFTA thingy. As you can see below, he is going to fix by doing two opposite things. What's not to like about this guy?

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