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Do YOU think the recession is "over"?

Discussion in 'Off Topic Threads' started by bigdogtx, Aug 21, 2009.

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  1. bigdogtx

    bigdogtx Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2006
    Messages:
    10,650
    This recent upswing in the market has me and many others baffled.

    With unemployment getting higher each month and the most recent weekly numbers higher than "expected" and hundreds of thousands that have "fallen off" the doles....

    China is really leery of our bonds and we (the Fed) is having to buy our own bonds (monetizing the debt)....

    Earnings were up,,,,yet revenues were down,,,,which means that a lot of money was saved through layoffs....

    Consumer confidence numbers are down,,,,in both the economy AND with Washington....

    Budget figures are showing a HUGE deficit and the National Debt is rising at alarming numbers,,,,treasury revenues are lower than expected so this shows no alleviation in the near-term....

    While we are still making good returns in our accounts, I am a little confused....What I am looking at is; what is supposed to be UP is DOWN and what is supposed to be DOWN is UP. It is not showing "normal" indicators for it to be reacting this way. So while this is an unscientific survey,so to speak, I am just wanting to get a "feeling" for what YOU are feeling about the economy and WHY you feel the way you do. Just looking for pscycological reasons that may be possibly driving what is going on....

    We still have about 50% of our client's money in cash and are finding some good buys, many of the investments we want to buy are just too high.

    All replies and reasoning respected.
     
  2. timberfaller

    timberfaller Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 24, 2007
    Messages:
    7,946
    Location:
    Eastern Washington
    Do YOU think the recession is

    NO, NO AND ah, NO

    I have not seen what I lost or others, come back. I think it is still going to crash some more.

    Forclousers are just now hitting Wenatchee WA. One of the towns who has some of the most overinflated housing prices and rental prices. I've been looking for a place for over a year. The banks and realators have been saying all along that "they" are in a bubble and what has been going on in the rest of the country, will not effect them!

    Wenatchee, WA is considered to have a 56% over inflated housing market!

    GREED is what is running(ruining)our country at the momment.
     
  3. Easystreet

    Easystreet Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 1998
    Messages:
    1,462
    Do YOU think the recession is

    ***"We still have about 50% of our client's money in cash and are finding some good buys, many of the investments we want to buy are just too high."***


    Too high compared to WHAT? Almost no one buys things when they are at their absolute bottom, but that doen't mean that they may not be good buys today. Most stocks were MUCH lower back in March. Were you buying then, or were you scared (like most people) that the market was going to go even lower? I wasn't buying in March (unfortunately), but I wasn't selling either. I've recently put some new money in the market and I'm waiting for a 10% pullback to put some more in.

    I wouldn't say the recession is OVER, but I do think that the worst is behind us. I think the recovery may take another 18 to 36 months to be fully recovered in most areas, but if a person waits until that happens, then they will be buying at the top again.

    Easystreet
     
  4. stokinpls

    stokinpls Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 1998
    Messages:
    6,482
    Do YOU think the recession is

    If it is, it must be due the that early 800 billion Bush pumped into the economy because as we all know, the last "880+ billion won't start showing results for two years. maybe more." Boy, I'll bet we won't be hearing that quote from the moonbat lib socialists much any more.
     
  5. daddiooo

    daddiooo TS Supporters TS Supporters

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 1998
    Messages:
    4,004
    Location:
    GEORGIA
    Do YOU think the recession is

    Put politely:


    We're circling the drain folks.
     
  6. R.Kipling

    R.Kipling Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2007
    Messages:
    1,765
    Do YOU think the recession is

    "figures lie, and liars figure..............." There is no such thing as a jobless recovery.

    Kip
     
  7. tachyon

    tachyon Member

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 1998
    Messages:
    670
    Do YOU think the recession is

    bigdog, I agree with you, things are upside down.

    1. Unemployment is still going up, spending is still going down.

    2. June and July housing starts are down at least 37% when compared to last year and last year was not stellar.

    3. Foreclosures are still increasing. We have run through the subprime group and are now into those with regular loans. Wall Street Journal reports that more than 70% of people who bought a house in the last 7 years are now upside down in their mortgage.

    4. Cash for clunkers will bankrupt a lot of dealers as the government is not making timely payment to the dealers. This was a limited spike in the auto industry (mostly Toyota) and of course everyone who could buy a car did.... Car sales will plummet after the program is over, and many of those who took advantage of the deal will not be able to keep up with payments. This program also hurt home sales as people took the cash for the car and waited on the house.

    5. The plus side to the market is that the mainstream press (ABC, NBC, CBS) wants obama to succeed. They will sugar coat the news so that panic may not hit the streets.

    6. Cap and Trade and Obamacare adds more uncertainty to the mix.

    7. The markets will be manipulated to show some growth going into the 2010 elections. Gotta keep the incumbents happy. It will be interesting to see what happens if the Socialists lose super majority in the senate or lose their majority.
     
  8. halfmile

    halfmile Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 1998
    Messages:
    15,639
    Location:
    Green Bay Wisconsin
    Do YOU think the recession is

    It's a head fake, pure and simple. Very dangerous here.

    If I had any large amount of liquid assets I would get it tangible ASAP. And not high dollar fancy stuff either.

    Go to the above URL and look at the chart.

    The dollar is tanking again, like before the housing meltdown.

    This time it won't be so gentle. And we're all out of green BAnd-Aids to paste on the cuts.

    There is just too much stuff happening all at once in this country and it's getting scary.

    HM
     
  9. WesleyB

    WesleyB Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2007
    Messages:
    1,471
    Do YOU think the recession is

    This is only an upward blip in a downward economy. Enuf said.
     
  10. Catpower

    Catpower Molon Labe TS Supporters

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 1998
    Messages:
    10,229
    Location:
    In the Cabana
    Do YOU think the recession is

    Didn't the term recession used to mean a down turn for 2 qtrs? I think we're in a depression
     
  11. chuckles

    chuckles Member

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 1998
    Messages:
    945
    Location:
    Michigan
    Do YOU think the recession is

    bigdogtexas, the markets are up because the professional traders (manipulators)are keeping it up....soon they will begin shorting to start another drop in the markets and they will clean up on all that new cash, they are very sophisticated in their trading mechanics.....

    Almost all economic indicators are negative but the Govt and the MSM are playing it positive to kiss up to the Obama mindset....

    Which is.....

    Everything is peachy keen, just rosey, start spending again (with whats left of your savings, CD's, etc.)....

    In reality hold on to your ass and all that you have, if in the market be sure you are playing it short term (like daily)...

    A jobless recovery is not possible but that is what the Obama mindset is all about.....

    Remember this ...all the big time positive talkers and cheerleaders are Academics, Media types, Govt types...the folks with weekly paychecks.....

    regards
     
  12. 391 shooter

    391 shooter Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 3, 2008
    Messages:
    2,094
    Do YOU think the recession is

    In those great words of Forrest Gump "Stupid is as Stupid Does".

    We are in a manufacturing comma, I am in the Ag buisness and we are all just waiting to see what happens next, there is no confidence in anything our stupid ass President and Congress have and are doing thus leading to wait and see, wait and see wait and see.

    This President doesn't know the differance between "Come here and sickem".

    This Joke somes it up.

    A man walked into a very high-tech bar. As he sat down on a
    stool he noticed that the bartender was a robot. The robot clicked to
    attention
    and asked, "Sir, what will you have?"

    The man thought a
    moment then replied, "A martini please."

    The robot clicked a couple of
    times and mixed the best martini the
    man had ever had.

    The robot
    then asked, "Sir, what is your IQ?"

    The man answered "oh, about 164."


    The robot then proceeded to discuss the 'theory of
    relativity',
    'inter-stellar space travel', 'the latest medical break-through', etc.......


    The man was most impressed. He left the bar but thought he would try
    a different tact. He returned and took a seat. Again the robot clicked

    and asked what he would have? "A Martini please."

    Again it was
    superb. The robot again asked "what is your IQ sir?"



    This time the man answered, "Oh about 100". So the robot
    started
    discussing NASCAR racing, the latest basketball scores, and what
    to
    expect the Dodgers to do this weekend.

    The guy had to try it one
    more time. So he left, returned and took
    a stool.... Again a martini, and
    the question, "What is your IQ?"

    This time the man drawled out
    "Uh..... bout 50".



    The robot clicked then leaned close and very slowly asked,


    .....................

    "A-r-e y-o-u-r p-e-o-p-l-e
    h-a-p-p-y w-i-t-h O-B-A-M-A?
     
  13. higun

    higun Member

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 1998
    Messages:
    177
    Do YOU think the recession is

    The recession just started for me. I got laid off yesterday due to economic conditions. I would have much preferred to have just gotten laid.

    I feel sorry for all the young providers out there who are facing this situation. For them the mortgages, car payments etc. won’t go away. I’m fortunate in that I’m in the later portion of my working years with those concerns behind me and can weather the storm.

    I’ve got an interview tomorrow morning – wish me luck.

    I would like to have a job because I want one. I refuse to become one of those mindless, slack jawed idiots who think that the government (Obambam) should provide for you. I have never collected an unemployment check or used any kind of government assistance and I don’t intend to start now.

    The good news is that we have a shoot this Sunday!
     
  14. stokinpls

    stokinpls Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 1998
    Messages:
    6,482
    Do YOU think the recession is

    If the interview goes well, play the options! Good luck!
     
  15. Turtle29728

    Turtle29728 TS Member

    Joined:
    Jul 22, 2008
    Messages:
    194
    Do YOU think the recession is

    higun
    You are a man (or woman for that matter) after my own heart. Good luck at the interview and Break 'em all! This country needs more like you.
     
  16. warren

    warren Member

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 1998
    Messages:
    948
    Location:
    Fernley, Nevada
    Do YOU think the recession is

    They are saying 9 trillion deficit in the next ten years, the country is broke and won't admit it. Inflation is next tbt is the stock to hedge that with. For disclosure purporses I have a position in it.

    warren
     
  17. bobdog

    bobdog Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 1998
    Messages:
    774
    Do YOU think the recession is

    I saw that too. Divide $9 Trillion into 300 million people in the US: $30,000 of spending for every man, woman and baby child in America. How many people actually pay taxes?

    World War II cost us $5 Trillion (in 2009 dollars), and it took 5 years to do it. Congress has spent almost twice as much in 7 months.

    I think maybe I'll vote next November...assuming I can get through the riots on the way to the polls. Most of the people I know are angry as hell.
     
  18. Tron

    Tron Supporting Vendor Supporting Vendor

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 1998
    Messages:
    6,653
    Do YOU think the recession is

    It's over if the effin' media would quit dwelling on it. Enough already!
     
  19. PerazziBigBore

    PerazziBigBore TS Member

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 1998
    Messages:
    3,859
    Do YOU think the recession is

    The best information I have is about this time next year.. things will start to show signs of improvment that we can see.. Our next problem is the devalued dollar without a pay raise and our life savings devalued greatly..as time goes on..
     
  20. nsrailroad

    nsrailroad Member

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 1998
    Messages:
    339
    Do YOU think the recession is

    NONONO
     
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