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Do 16 yd scores correlate with Handicap yardages?

Discussion in 'Shooting Related Threads' started by likes-to-shoot, Jan 9, 2012.

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  1. likes-to-shoot

    likes-to-shoot Well-Known Member

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    Does the 16 yard averages relate any to a persons handicap abilities? Maybe in its infinite wisdom the ATA is on to something with the 2 yard reduction.

    Lets face it, there are a lot of today's shooters that are over handicapped and won't take the reduction because of pride, wanting to shoot with buddies or what ever. Which is fine with me but think about it, these reductions will make it more competitive in the different yardage groups. Thoughts?

    Bill
     
  2. John Galt

    John Galt TS Member

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  3. Hammer1

    Hammer1 Active Member

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    .

    Are there folks who routinely shoot better scores from Handicap than they do from 16 yards ?

    .
     
  4. Big Jack

    Big Jack Well-Known Member

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    I seem to remember being told that your handicap average should be approximatly one point lower for each yard your stepping back. Doesn't work out for mine. Oh well!

    Big Jack
     
  5. Pocatello

    Pocatello Active Member

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    The data from the 2008 ATA Average book, provided to me in MS Excel format by Neil Winston, shows 22,512 who registered at least some Singles and Handicap during that target year. The correlation coefficient between their singles averages and handicap averages is r=0.74, which is clearly positive (i.e. "yes, they have positive correlation"). My statistics are very rusty, and Hammer1 can certainly correct them if they are wrong. Making the very questionable assumption that the data is a random sample of all ATA shooters rather than a fixed population, with a null hypothesis being that there is no correlation, and the alternative hypothesis that there is a positive correlation (i.e. the higher the singles average, the higher the handicap average), the critical value at the alpha=0.005 level is 2.58, while the observed statistic is 166.7. Conclusion: they are positively correlated beyond doubt.

    Art, in answer to your question, in 2008 1325 of the 22512 (5.9%) of the shooters had a higher handicap average than their singles average.
     
  6. BigM-Perazzi

    BigM-Perazzi Well-Known Member

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    But, then again, I know those who shoot singles in blizzards and tornadoes
    . And handicap only when it's nice out and big pots are available ...
     
  7. slipping into darkness

    slipping into darkness TS Member

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    I just have to say this, Hypothesis, correlation, assumption, some calculus, the "ID" is tearing the fabric out of my tiny cell used for calculating!
    Nice post Pocatello, are you from Utah, work there a couple of years, miss the trout fishing and exploring, still remember going down to the oyster bar in Salt Lake and having some of the fineness sea food ever,and the Mormon Church which was deck out for Christmas with millions of lights.
     
  8. perga1

    perga1 Active Member

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    Using the same logic as put forth in the rule book relating 16 yard averages to handicap minimums should the shooter with a higher handicap average than 16 yard average have their 16 yard class increased or locked? JRm
     
  9. V10

    V10 Well-Known Member

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    Pocatello's in Idaho.
     
  10. senior smoke

    senior smoke Well-Known Member

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    Years ago, one of my squad members that usually shot with us had an 98.+ 16 yard average. He was on 20 to 22 yards all the time. He went to the Grand in Ohio one year and the man who classified him did a double take at his score card. He let him shoot from 22 yards because he said every score matched what he had in his computer. That year he shot the Grand American handicap, and was in the top ten scores of that event.

    When he was classified the gentleman asked him why his handicap scores were so low? He said he found handicap different than 16 yard shooting even though he was not that further back in distance. Suspicion always surrounded this particular shooter at every shoot. And as luck would have it he did very well at the Grand. I believe to a certain extent, your 16 yard average is indeed an indicator of where you should be standing in handicap.

    In this particular situation, I don't know if the man at the classification desk could have had him shoot further back as he met the target requirements in both 16 yard and handicap.
    Steve Balistreri
     
  11. fssberson

    fssberson Active Member

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    Pocatello: Are you using Chi Square [.05] to determine a significant difference? If so, that stat will only tell you, Yes there is a difference, but for what? Do singles shooters, let say at the AA level, have higher handicap averages than A singles shooters? I am not sure that Chi Square really defines the issue. I think the problem needs to be defined more clearly. What is the hypothesis? Fred
     
  12. Mark425

    Mark425 TS Member

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    Easy answer..... 6 less than the singles average will get you close to the answer.
     
  13. perga1

    perga1 Active Member

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    If I remember correctly Frank Little used to say the average shooter would have a handicap average 7-9 points below their 16 yard average. In my case it is usually in that range but lately it is a bigger difference than that. JRm
     
  14. shadow

    shadow Active Member

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    I am in that 5.9%. My handicap scores are consistantly 3-5 points higher than my singles.
     
  15. K005

    K005 Member

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    Here are the averages of over 8000 shooters from 2006 from shooters in MN, IA, WI, IL, MI. This data is from a 3S database. It includes shooters shooting at least 100 handicap targets. I'm sure the averages are about the same for 2011. Bob K. 5719005

    Yardage Singles Handicap Diff
    19 83.2% 81.2% 2.1%
    20 87.8% 83.7% 4.2%
    21 91.6% 85.9% 5.7%
    22 92.5% 86.5% 6.1%
    23 93.5% 87.0% 6.5%
    24 94.2% 86.6% 7.6%
    25 94.8% 86.9% 7.9%
    26 95.9% 87.4% 8.5%
    27 96.9% 89.3% 7.6%
     
  16. JACK

    JACK Well-Known Member Supporting Vendor

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    Well, thanks K005. That clears it up. Nice presetation
     
  17. V10

    V10 Well-Known Member

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    Here is data from TY2011.

    These are averages for shooters registering at least 1,000 singles and 1,000 handicap.

    Frank Little estimated that the average shooters handicap average would be 1% less than their singles average for every yard they shot behind the 16 yard line. Thus Mr. Little would have estimated that an 18-yard shooter averaging 91% from the 16 would average 89% from the 18.


    v10_2008_030316.jpg
     
  18. bigben

    bigben Active Member

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    Yukon, great job at 16's just a little advise , jack your comb up 1/8 at least for the caps, you will be amazed! incinerate em!
     
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