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Cooking the books?

Discussion in 'Politics, Elections & Legislation' started by halfmile, Oct 8, 2012.

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  1. halfmile

    halfmile Well-Known Member

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    It would seem that the Obama administration is the beneficiary of an astounding aberration in the unemployment report.

    almost 900 thousand new jobs reported by one part of the report without a corresponding increase in payroll figures.

    from heritage.org:

    "The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) September payroll survey finds that employers added a net 114,000 new jobs, continuing the trend of slow employment growth during the recovery. The substantially divergent job growth reported in the household survey and the associated drop in the unemployment rate is inconsistent with other economic indicators and may represent statistical sampling error

    The government conducts two main jobs surveys. One queries employers and asks how many workers they have on payroll. The other polls individuals and asks whether they are working or looking for work. In contrast to the slow jobs growth in the employers’ survey, the household survey reported a jump in employment nearly eight times larger. This curious job growth in turn caused the unemployment rate to fall by 0.3 percentage points to 7.8 percent.

    Because these surveys are samples, they have margins of error around the reported figures, just like political polls. If a survey reports a margin of error with a 99 percent probability, it means that one time out of hundred the true figure will be much different from the reported figure. One time out of a hundred for a monthly survey means about once every eight years.

    Of the two surveys, the payroll survey has a much smaller statistical margin of error.[2] The real value of the household survey is that it provides information on what non-workers are doing, information that the payroll survey cannot capture. Typically, the two surveys disagree somewhat month-to-month but track one another fairly well over longer periods of time.

    What seems to have occurred with the September household survey is the one time in a hundred. The household survey reported an astounding 418,000-person jump in the labor force and an 873,000-worker jump in employment at a time when the economy is stumbling. The last time the household survey showed such a huge jump in employment was in 1983 during the Reagan-era economic boom.[3]

    If employers had created almost 900,000 jobs, then GDP should also be expanding rapidly. The payroll survey should also show large job growth, and new unemployment insurance (UI) claims should be dropping sharply. None of these are happening. Second-quarter GDP growth was recently revised down, and new UI claims remain around 370,000 a week.

    Today’s economy does not look like the Reagan boom. This month’s household survey is one to set aside until another report comes out next month. There is a good chance that with a new sample, the October report will show a countervailing increase in the unemployment rate.


    The odd household survey result notwithstanding, the economic data continue to paint a grim picture of an economy muddling along and now at risk of recession as the threat of Taxmageddon draws near.

    It is not often that policymakers can take one simple, swift action to improve job growth materially, but this is one of those times. The President and Congress should make preventing Taxmageddon their first task when Congress returns to work in November."

    It would almost seem as if the data aberration came just in time after the debate.

    Imagine that.

    HM
     
  2. WS-1

    WS-1 Banned User Banned

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    Flyn ain't gonna like this!
     
  3. Leo

    Leo Well-Known Member

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    If unemployment really is down as much as they say, and there are all these new jobs, then TAX REVENUES would be UP and there would money closing the budget gaps on the Federal, state and local level. I have not seen a single report of that happening.

    900,000 people who have their unemployment run out getting 10 hours a week at a part time minimum wage job is not the same as 900,000 more people making a living.
     
  4. crusha

    crusha TS Member

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    "Uh, well, um, uh.,..well see, the people have JOBS, right...but they haven't got PAID yet, see...coz they doesnt get paid till their first two weeks, so...they aren't on the Gubmint PAYROLL list...see, stupid! Boy, you pulicans sure is dumb! Huh huh huh...Do you have Prince Albert in a Can?"



    This message brought to you by your Local Labor Union.
     
  5. slide action

    slide action Well-Known Member

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    Ali Bama and his crew`would LIE or MISLEAD ?????!!!! Why I'm SHOCKED! SHOCKED I tell you! Why who woulda thunk it!!!!!
     
  6. stokinpls

    stokinpls Well-Known Member

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    On the radio news today:

    "The conglomerate that runs Red Lobster, Olive Garden and Longhorn Steakhouse has found a way to improve their bottom line. They are hiring more part-time people and less full-time employees. This reduces the benefits these restaurants have to pay out their employees."

    They made it sound like it was a good thing. LOL.

    Bob Falfa
     
  7. Don Steele

    Don Steele Well-Known Member

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    The plan you mention which was announced by Darden Group( the "conglomerate" referred to) will actually lower unemployment since they will need more people to work the same number of hours if they limit each employee's work hours to stay under the number that requires them to provide health insurance under Obamacare.
    On related note, I recently heard a report that Macy's is planning to add 80,000 part-time employees (nationwide) for the holiday shopping season.
    MORE proof Obama's economy is ROARING BACK...!!!!(Yeah right...!!!)
     
  8. grunt

    grunt TS Supporters TS Supporters

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    I didn't know that the Obamas were disbarred. I did know they gave up their licenses.
     
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