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Concealed Carry Stats?

Discussion in 'Shooting Related Threads' started by funski, Dec 7, 2012.

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  1. funski

    funski Member

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    I've always heard that when a state passes "Concealed Carry" that the percentage of crime has always gone DOWN. Is this a true statement? Has anyone seen stats? Being from Illinois and our "crime rate" the highest in the nation, you'd think it would be a no brainer. Thanks Jim
     
  2. cubancigar2000

    cubancigar2000 Well-Known Member

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    It is a no brainer. If only the criminals have guns what do you think the outcome will be?
     
  3. funski

    funski Member

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    cubancigar2000--I agree with you but my question --- Have you ever seen any stats???????????
     
  4. timb99

    timb99 Well-Known Member

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    The stats can be cooked to prove whatever you want. I did see some stats a while back, and it was inconclusive. Up some places, down others.

    I truly believe there is no connection, good or bad, between crime and concealed carry.

    As a percentage of the population, so few people actually get a CCW permit, the criminals probably aren't that concerned.

    And crime has been on a down turn since the 90's, long before most States allowed concealed carry.
     
  5. grnberetcj

    grnberetcj Active Member

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    Here's a major reason...

    Wonder how the CJS (Criminal Justice System) classified this???

    Curt
     
  6. funski

    funski Member

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    Great Video------- They probably viewed him as a crazed lunatic!!!
     
  7. timb99

    timb99 Well-Known Member

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    The only problem with what he does in that video is that he continues to pursue and shoot at them as they are running away. Unfortunately, that could be bad for him.
     
  8. HSLDS

    HSLDS Well-Known Member

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    The simple answer is 'yes.'

    Do a Goggle search - look for the works of Gary Kleck and/or John Lott
     
  9. GrandpasArms

    GrandpasArms Active Member

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    An interesting facet of the CC argument is the actual magnitude of the gun "problem". One set of statistics demonstrated that in one year's time, 1,085,000 people were killed by something - ranging from cigarette smoking to gun homicides. The gun-related homicides represents 1.06% of the 1,085,000 fillings. Approximately 2.5 million people die each year in the united states. According to the numbers above, 0.46% of them are killed by guns - which is also 0.0035% of the entire population of the United States (approximately 325 million).

    Depending, then, on how you want to manipulate the data, gun homicides are either a major concern - approximately 40% of the homicides - or not such a big deal at all - 0.46% of the people who died - or 0.0035% of the entire population.

    Anti-gun folks like to emphasize the 11,493 gun-related murders. CC proponents prefer to emphasize that 40% of the homicides are from guns.

    Regardless of which position a person takes, the statistics can be used accurately to support it.

    There is no real resolution to the issue - but the argument persists because political positioning has come to trump practically every aspect of our lives. Where liberty was once paramount, today it's politics and positioning. The myth of bipartisanship persists because that's what we want - even though the people in control don't. Division and arguments are effective means of controlling the vast numbers of people in this country. Heck, even the NRA works hard to keep its members riled up over gun rights - as is evidenced by the number of screaming pieces of mail I receive from them every week.

    I suggest that CC or not, the homicide rates will stay about the same - as will the rates of all the other unintended killings (tobacco, etc.). I'd prefer to carry, but I'm in Illinois and can't do it legally. But, that wouldn't stop me from carrying in Illinois if I wanted to. So, the difference is just a piece of paper - or a plastic card in my wallet. Like so many others, I've been trained. I practice at a range and I have CC authorization in the majority of states that allow it.

    It is always us vs. them. One difficulty is knowing which side to take. The statistics help keep the arguments alive, but they certainly don't help anyone solve the problems - whether about guns or food stamps.
     
  10. BT99

    BT99 Member

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    Take the statistics with a grain of salt. Example...Person breaks into your
    home intending to do you bodily harm. You defend yourself, shoot and kill
    this individual. Police investigate and this goes on the Uniform Crime Report as a homicide. Then this homicide is ruled "Justified". The only notation on the Uniform Crime Report is that this case was "cleared". Cleared can mean an arrst was made or ruled justifiable or whatever. It is still carried for statistics purposes as a homecide by firearm. FBI statistics are taken from the Unifore Crime Report submitted by all law enforcement departments.
     
  11. timberfaller

    timberfaller Well-Known Member

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    The percentage isn't as important as the "Fact" that crime DOES go DOWN when a state allows CCP's

    People like Costas and Beckle and Williams will never grasp the understanding of that, they only know of Karl Marx and his Ideology's and believe liberalism works !!
     
  12. Hammer1

    Hammer1 Active Member

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    .

    "More Guns, Less Crime" is a book by John Lott that says violent crime rates go down when states pass "shall issue" concealed carry laws. He presents the results of his statistical analysis of crime data for every county in the United States during 29 years from 1977 to 2005. The book examines city, county and state level data from the entire United States and measures the impact of 11 different types of gun control laws on crime rates. The book expands on an earlier study published in 1997 by Lott and his co-author David Mustard in The Journal of Legal Studies.[1] Lott also examines the effects of gun control laws, including the Brady Law.

    Yes, as the presence of guns increases among the law-abiding segments of society the crime rate falls.

    Logical. And the statistical data supports it.

    .
     
  13. Hammer1

    Hammer1 Active Member

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    An interview with
    John R. Lott, Jr.
    author of More Guns, Less Crime: Understanding Crime and Gun Control Laws



    Question: What does the title mean: More Guns, Less Crime?

    John R. Lott, Jr.: States with the largest increases in gun ownership also have the largest drops in violent crimes. Thirty-one states now have such laws—called "shall-issue" laws. These laws allow adults the right to carry concealed handguns if they do not have a criminal record or a history of significant mental illness.

    Question: It just seems to defy common sense that crimes likely to involve guns would be reduced by allowing more people to carry guns. How do you explain the results?

    Lott: Criminals are deterred by higher penalties. Just as higher arrest and conviction rates deter crime, so does the risk that someone committing a crime will confront someone able to defend him or herself. There is a strong negative relationship between the number of law-abiding citizens with permits and the crime rate—as more people obtain permits there is a greater decline in violent crime rates. For each additional year that a concealed handgun law is in effect the murder rate declines by 3 percent, rape by 2 percent, and robberies by over 2 percent.

    Concealed handgun laws reduce violent crime for two reasons. First, they reduce the number of attempted crimes because criminals are uncertain which potential victims can defend themselves. Second, victims who have guns are in a much better position to defend themselves.

    Question: What is the basis for these numbers?

    Lott: The analysis is based on data for all 3,054 counties in the United States during 18 years from 1977 to 1994.

    Question: Your argument about criminals and deterrence doesn't tell the whole story. Don't statistics show that most people are killed by someone they know?

    Lott: You are referring to the often-cited statistic that 58 percent of murder victims are killed by either relatives or acquaintances. However, what most people don't understand is that this "acquaintance murder" number also includes gang members killing other gang members, drug buyers killing drug pushers, cabdrivers killed by customers they picked up for the first time, prostitutes and their clients, and so on. "Acquaintance" covers a wide range of relationships. The vast majority of murders are not committed by previously law-abiding citizens. Ninety percent of adult murderers have had criminal records as adults.

    Question: But how about children? In March of this year [1998] four children and a teacher were killed by two school boys in Jonesboro, Arkansas. Won't tragedies like this increase if more people are allowed to carry guns? Shouldn't this be taken into consideration before making gun ownership laws more lenient?

    Lott: The horrific shooting in Arkansas occurred in one of the few places where having guns was already illegal. These laws risk creating situations in which the good guys cannot defend themselves from the bad ones. I have studied multiple victim public shootings in the United States from 1977 to 1995. These were incidents in which at least two or more people were killed and or injured in a public place; in order to focus on the type of shooting seen in Arkansas, shootings that were the byproduct of another crime, such as robbery, were excluded. The effect of "shall-issue" laws on these crimes has been dramatic. When states passed these laws, the number of multiple-victim shootings declined by 84 percent. Deaths from these shootings plummeted on average by 90 percent, and injuries by 82 percent.

    For other types of crimes, I find that both children as well as adults are protected when law-abiding adults are allowed to carry concealed handguns.

    Finally, after extensively studying the number of accidental shootings, there is no evidence that increasing the number of concealed handguns increases accidental shootings. We know that the type of person who obtains a permit is extremely law-abiding and possibly they are extremely careful in how they take care of their guns. The total number of accidental gun deaths each year is about 1,300 and each year such accidents take the lives of 200 children 14 years of age and under. However, these regrettable numbers of lives lost need to be put into some perspective with the other risks children face. Despite over 200 million guns owned by between 76 to 85 million people, the children killed is much smaller than the number lost through bicycle accidents, drowning, and fires. Children are 14.5 times more likely to die from car accidents than from accidents involving guns.

    Question: Wouldn't allowing concealed weapons increase the incidents of citizens attacking each other in tense situations? For instance, sometimes in traffic jams or accidents people become very hostile—screaming and shoving at one another. If armed, might people shoot each other in the heat of the moment?

    Lott: During state legislative hearings on concealed-handgun laws, possibly the most commonly raised concern involved fears that armed citizens would attack each other in the heat of the moment following car accidents. The evidence shows that such fears are unfounded. Despite millions of people licensed to carry concealed handguns and many states having these laws for decades, there has only been one case where a person with a permit used a gun after a traffic accident and even in that one case it was in self-defense.

    Question: Violence is often directed at women. Won't more guns put more women at risk?

    Lott: Murder rates decline when either more women or more men carry concealed handguns, but a gun represents a much larger change in a woman's ability to defend herself than it does for a man. An additional woman carrying a concealed handgun reduces the murder rate for women by about 3 to 4 times more than an additional man carrying a concealed handgun reduces the murder rate for men.

    Question: Aren't you playing into people's fears and prejudices though? Don't politicians pass these shall-issue laws to mollify middle-class white suburbanites anxious about the encroachment of urban minority crime?

    Lott: I won't speculate about motives, but the results tell a different story. High crime urban areas and neighborhoods with large minority populations have the greatest reductions in violent crime when citizens are legally allowed to carry concealed handguns.

    Question: What about other countries? It's often argued that Britain, for instance, has a lower violent crime rate than the USA because guns are much harder to obtain and own.

    Lott: The data analyzed in this book is from the USA. Many countries, such as Switzerland, New Zealand, Finland, and Israel have high gun-ownership rates and low crime rates, while other countries have low gun ownership rates and either low or high crime rates. It is difficult to obtain comparable data on crime rates both over time and across countries, and to control for all the other differences across the legal systems and cultures across countries. Even the cross country polling data on gun ownership is difficult to assess, because ownership is underreported in countries where gun ownership is illegal and the same polls are never used across countries.

    Question: This is certainly controversial and there are certain to be counter-arguments from those who disagree with you. How will you respond to them?

    Lott: Some people do use guns in horrible ways, but other people use guns to prevent horrible things from happening to them. The ultimate question that concerns us all is: Will allowing law-abiding citizens to own guns save lives? While there are many anecdotal stories illustrating both good and bad uses of guns, this question can only be answered by looking at data to find out what the net effect is.

    All of chapter seven of the book is devoted to answering objections that people have raised to my analysis. There are of course strong feelings on both sides about the issue of gun ownership and gun control laws. The best we can do is to try to discover and understand the facts. If you agree, or especially if you disagree with my conclusions I hope you'll read the book carefully and develop an informed opinion.



    .
     
  14. AEST BOSS

    AEST BOSS Member

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    The Dallas Morning News wrote a big piece in October (mash link) on crime stats. They revealed that many crimes are being "mis-reported" to show crime rates going down. This all started back in the mid-2000 timeframe. Crimes today don't get the same grade they did back in the 1980s or 1990s. The local, state, and federal reports are skewed to "tell" a much different story than reality....so you Sheeple can feel safe.

    Can I get you some fresh hay to go with that coffee?
     
  15. Hammer1

    Hammer1 Active Member

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    "They revealed that many crimes are being "mis-reported" to show crime rates going down. This all started back in the mid-2000 timeframe. Crimes today don't get the same grade they did back in the 1980s or 1990s. "

    .

    You make me feel better telling me that Lott was working off nearly two decades of correctly reported data from 1977 to 1994.

    The first publication of John Lott's work was in 1997. An updated edition was done in 2005 (mid-2000 timeframe).

    .
     
  16. Auctioneer

    Auctioneer Well-Known Member

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    There were two towns in a state. One town OUTLAWED guns and crime went sky high. The other town saw what happened and pasted a law that EVERY HOUSE had to have a gun. Well crime went to an all time low. Got that from the NRA.

    A guy was in a barber shop and was in the chair. Others in the shop were talking about guns. The guy in the chair said GUNS SHOULD BE OUTLAWED. The place went quiet. The barber then leaned over and said "I wouldn't say that to loud if I were you". He said in a rough voice "WHY NOT? I HAVE A RIGHT TO". "Yes you do but how do you know if one of these men isn't a thief? He know now that you don't have a gun and they know I have a gun. Who's house do you think he will go to?" He went back to cutting the guys hair. In about 3 min he spook up and said "Hey How much is a gun?" Point made.
     
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