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Anyone believe this lead price prediction?

Discussion in 'Uncategorized Threads' started by The Rock, Dec 31, 2007.

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  1. The Rock

    The Rock Active Member

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    I wish they would make up their minds.


    Lead prices set to plummet from near-record level
    By Millie Munshi and Glenys Sim Bloomberg News
    Published: August 6, 2007


    Text Size

    NEW YORK: Prices of lead, the best-performing commodity in 2007, have peaked and may plummet for the rest of the year, according to analysts. A supply squeeze that doubled prices will ease by the end of the year, JPMorgan Chase and UBS said.

    A British refinery run by Xstrata is increasing shipments, and companies are recycling more of the metal. Doe Run Resources, a major U.S. refiner, plan to resume full production this month after an explosion on July 13 cut production at its smelter in Missouri. Ivernia plans to resume exports from Australia.

    "The market has the potential to collapse," said Jon Bergtheil, the head of global metals strategy in London with JPMorgan. "There's a large amount of supply coming on."

    Lead will drop to $2,122 a metric ton in the fourth quarter and average $1,792 a ton in 2008, according to the median estimate of 10 banks surveyed by Bloomberg. Lead for delivery in three months reached a record $3,500 a ton on July 20 and ended at $3,280 a ton on Friday. Hedge funds, speculators, producers and consumers have outstanding bets worth $7 billion in lead on the London Metal Exchange, where benchmark prices are set. Options to sell the metal outnumber contracts to buy by almost two to one.

    "Current high prices are not fundamentally justified," Robin Bhar and Daniel Brebner, analysts in London with UBS, said in a report last week. "Traders and merchants report no actual physical shortage of metal."

    This would be $.896 a pound.


    Rock

    Jim
     
  2. esoxhunter

    esoxhunter Well-Known Member

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    Jim: This is similar to all commodities. The price is set by demand, greed, availability, fuel prices and any other excuse one might think up. As far as what we are talking about, (lead shot), we all know that it will come down. How much is another question. My opinion is you will never see shot below $20 a bag again. I would guess, (and that's all it is), you will find shot in the $30 range by summer. You might see it fluctuate even more but in my opinion the best we can hope for is shot settling in at approximately $25-$28 a bag; once the "dust settles". (AND if President Hillary doesn't ban lead all together) Again, my $.02 worth. Ed
     
  3. Beretta687EELL

    Beretta687EELL Well-Known Member

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    A year ago (according to the Kitco web site) the supply side showed about the same amount of lead available to the market and the price was around 80 cents per pound. If the supply side continues to grow the price will continue to fall. IMHO Bill Malcolm
     
  4. Jim101

    Jim101 Active Member

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    Wouldn't surprise me to see the lead producers take a lesson from OPEC, Moderate production to keep supplies close and prices up.





    Jim
     
  5. Capt. Morgan

    Capt. Morgan TS Member

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    For me, it's important to keep in mind that Bloomberg Services is in the business of providing information and related services to financial markets of all types world-wide. They are NOT in the business of making predictions based on what they collect but of simply reporting and distributing it in a variety of forms.

    Ask a Bloomsberg analyst what activity indicates the price of (eg.) lead will do in the next 6 months and he/she will tell you that they have surveyed X number of banks and the banks say that the financial activity related to that commodity shows this-or-that trend, in their opinions, and that would generally reflect expected movement in this-or-that direction. That's what Bloomsberg reports to its clients. They are not predicting; they are simply relating the data collected from other sources.

    The people who write the news reports don't always care about the difference between a "report" and a "prediction" so Bloomberg Services is credited with making a lot of predictions that it doesn't know it makes.

    Morgan
     
  6. Baber

    Baber TS Member

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    OK... My prediction is that lead will be back below $1 a pound in the first or second quarter of 08. This would mean that shot will settle to something less that $30 per bag by the end of 2008. Sub $20 a bag will not been seen again.

    TB
     
  7. shannon391

    shannon391 Active Member

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    Never say never, over inflated metal bulls can't run forever. The price can fall much faster than they climed once panic from investors set in.
     
  8. skeeljc

    skeeljc Supporting Vendor Supporting Vendor

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    John Hert of Triple H Gun Club said his distributor talked to Lawrence Brand Shot and they thought shot will be back to $25.00 by mid summer 2008.

    Something must be going on because the distributors have very little shot inventory.

    Jim Sleel
     
  9. flylta

    flylta TS Member

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    Jim101,

    The only problem with your theory is the number of cuntries involved from seperate and diverse countries. OPEC is all like minded countries from the same area of the planet.
     
  10. nipper

    nipper TS Member

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    i better sell my lead stocks then

    bill
     
  11. lumper

    lumper TS Member

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    The latest word from the mining and production companies is that because of the gazillions of trap shooters in the USA that will either curtail there shooting or no longer shoot at all they will begin to drastically lower there prices in the hopes that it will keep us all shooting so we will keep them in business. They cant officially say yet but they are going to do what it takes to make lead shot less than $1 a pound for us all but we must wait ... they cant do it all of a sudden or else everyone else will be suspicious of previously being ripped off ... so just sit back and wait, soon it will begin to happen and when it does be sure to forget who told you about it.
     
  12. IM390

    IM390 Member

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    Somebody, like Cabelas or Sportman's is going to get stuck with a lot of over priced shells sometime this year. Look at the farmers, everyone I know is growing corn because the market prices has broken all records this year(in the production of gas-ahol). As soon as they figure out Global warming is a crock, they will take a hit too! Shotgun Sports magazine, January '08 Issue, states lead prices to fall 40% this year, because all the major lead producing countries have increased production by 15%(The U.S. has increased 65% in the last fives years)
     
  13. BMC

    BMC Member

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    Look if you guys want lead, just start picking up those use TV sets. Why? Well apparently effective Feb 09, there will be no more analog frequency signals broadcast for television. All TV will be digital which means that many of the 1 out of 5 homes that use the old rabbit ear antennas will be tossing their not-so-environmentally friendly TVs into the trash. Officals are greatly concerned because, according to what I read, there is upwards of FOUR POUNDS of lead in the average TV. Maybe its a good time to start thinking about that....free TV disposal company....he, he.
     
  14. alfermann66

    alfermann66 Member

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    On Kitco Metals lead in Aug., 2007 was about $1.82 per lb.....today it's $1.18.

    Buz
     
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