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'08 Election predetermined..see why (buzzgun)

Discussion in 'Uncategorized Threads' started by buzzgun, Oct 30, 2007.

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  1. buzzgun

    buzzgun Member

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    I, Buzzgun, hereby make my election prediction right now...10-30-07.

    For those of you who are interested in data analysis as applied to predicting the outcomes of political elections, the attached link will take you to a .PDF file of a fascinating analytical and predictive tool that has correctly predicted the popular-vote outcome of every Presidential election since it was created in the early 1980's.


    The author is a History professor at American University, and although he's a left-winger (remember he IS a professor, after all), his analytical tool predicts the outcomes of Presidential elections with uncanny certainty, in many cases 2 years before the election is even held.


    He uses a technique known as "pattern recognition" to create 13 "keys" that take into account various factors about economics, governance, foreign/military affairs, and several others to predict election outcomes. (He has analyzed all American Presidential races since 1860 in building his model, and his work is the best-known secret you've never heard about).


    Skip directly to page 5 for the summary of his system. Read each of the 13 "keys," answer them, and see if you get the same answer I did (remember, the null hypothesis is that the Republicans retain the White House, and the dividing line is 6 False answers...less than that, and the Republicans win...6 or more, the null is rejected and Hillary wins).


    IF YOU DO THIS - you will not need to read another news article, opinion poll, or bullshit TS.com political thread for the next YEAR, because you will already know the answer.


    The Gods have spoken; simply read and discover.
     
  2. buzzgun

    buzzgun Member

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    MIA,


    Okay - realizing that time is a precious commodity for people who are on TS.com at 3 in the morning...I'll give everyone a little hint.


    (and thanks for taking time out of your pee-break to read my post)


    If you don't want Democrats to win...then the results of this model aren't good news for the "home team." I interpret these "keys" as saying that the Democratic candidate, whoever it is, has already got this thing wrapped up, regardless who the Republican candidate is.


    Republicans lose keys #1,2,3,7,and 12...these five are based on:

    1. Midterm seat losses (ie, no "party mandate").

    2. Uncertainty who their candidate will be at this point (the "contested nomination" key).

    3. The fact that their candidate won't be a sitting President & won't have access to that free bully pulpit publicity.

    7. The fact that the Republican party can point to no major changes in domestic policy under their rule (the "governance" key).

    12. The Republican candidate will not be anyone with "charismatic" or "national hero" status (for example, an Eisenhower or Teddy Roosevelt).


    In addition, if the majority of voters considers Iraq _not_ to be a major success, then the Republicans lose key #11 ("no major success in military of foreign affairs"), and if they go beyond that & consider it a complete failure, then they also lose key #10 ("military & foreign affairs major failure")...in this way, the model distinguishes between whether the ruling party was a complete failure, or just didn't have any major triumphs.


    Now, we come to the economy. Keys 5 & 6 are "Short-term economy" (recession during campaign year?) & "Long-term economy" (Per-capita economic growth compared to the two previous terms). And it's not hard to see one or both of these possibly falling against the Republicans, too.


    So - summing up - Democrats need 6 keys to win according to this model, and they already have 5 of them wrapped up - and the candidates HAVEN'T EVEN BEEN CHOSEN YET! The model renders this result even before any primaries have taken place.


    Since the economy is largely out of Bush's hands at this point, the only thing the Republicans can possibly do to retain the White House, is somehow see to it that Iraq comes to be seen as a success - not just okay - but an actual success. BUT - even if Iraq were a complete and unequivocal success - if just one of the economy keys falls against the Republicans, that brings the total to 6 & they still lose.


    According to the model, you could capture Osama Bin Laden tomorrow, and turn Iraq into a peaceful haven of democracy...but the Republicans would still lose, if the economy slips into recession in the short term, or even if it doesn't but people still feel they're worse off over the long-term.


    Alternatively, even if the economy were terrific, all that would have to happen in Iraq is for voters to see it as a "non-success" - not a failure - just not particularly successful - and the Republicans still lose.


    There are any number of ways the Democrats could get the required 6 keys in their favor to win...and could possibly have as many as 9. They only need to get one of the 4 economy or foreign affairs keys turn their direction, whereas the Republicans have to find a way to hold onto all 4 of them - (ie, perfect economy, perfect result in Iraq).


    So there you have it - Buzz's prediction is that Hillary is President (assuming nothing "happens" to her, like Rudy pushing her in front of a subway train!)
     
  3. buzzgun

    buzzgun Member

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    Jim, you just may get your wish (well, one of them, anyway....)
     
  4. smsnyder

    smsnyder Well-Known Member

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    capitol gains will go through the roof if hillary is elected.
     
  5. buzzgun

    buzzgun Member

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    sorry Gordy.
     
  6. grammie

    grammie TS Member

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    The clocks are all set 15 minutes ahead for the skull&bones,,,this signifies their view of of "barbarian time" which everyone else is on!!!! everyone is 15 minutes behind them,,of course the 15 minutes is symbolic,,and the "time" they are ahead varies by individual,,,for instance,,the skull&bones can be "years" ahead of most of this nation and its people,,,or they can only be seconds ahead of those that pay attention,,and don't get their heads turned by illegal immigration,,gay marriagge,,GOD,,Iraq,,Iran,,Osama Bin Laden,,etc...

    The "grammie pattern recognition" system alerted all years ago,,,,Years ago!!! The next president was selected 2 years ago,,,,But most just wait for an election to tell them who won,,and then act surprised or shocked!!!!

    Gordon,,,,remember all those threads I wrote concerning taxes,,NWO,,all deemed "dark&pessimistic",,,,and many wrote how they are glad they don't live in my world???? Well,,it turns out---"they do live in my world"!!!! And now its time for all the cows to come home!!!!!!

    AKA Grammie..........
     
  7. tgun90

    tgun90 TS Member

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    Kasenich will win the election and be the next president he;s got the backing of all those little green guys flying around in ufo;s.
     
  8. buzzgun

    buzzgun Member

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    Of course, when the Republicans lose, you _know_ the usual wackos are going to be saying it was all because the candidate "Wasn't conservative enough" or "Wasn't strong enough on abortion" or "Was too wishy-washy on this issue" or "Not believeable on that issue." But be that as it may, the real truth is, it was all but decided two years prior, by simple, fundamental factors of governance and economics - the same ones that have determined every American Presidential election ever held.


    And when the wackos from the other side start claiming that the "voters have spoken" and Hillary has a "commanding mandate" to do this or that...again, same story as above. The Democrat could have been Daffy Duck; it just wasn't the Republicans' year.


    Here's what I like about the keys system: it basically means that all the talking points, all the debates, all the puffery, is just that - a bunch of blather. It de-values the influence of the media, pundits, consultants, and all the other blatherers who make their living off campaigns.


    Of course you're not going to hear them talking about this system, because their living depends on you believing that all this money, all this blather, all this horsepower that gets spent on campaigns, actually affects the outcome right up until the last minute.


    "Do you think Senator Huffanpuff's performance in the debate tonight has finally solidified his shot for the White House, Bob?"........."Yes, Leslie, our polling indicates his message is RESONATING with the voters, and it's possible that this performance tonight may have put him over the top....let's go check in with what our focus group is saying"...(camera flips over to a bunch of pot-bellied, intentionally normal and un-interesting people in flannel shirts, sitting in front of a TV holding joystick controllers in their hands, waiting their turn to recite their awkward impressions to the talking head...)


    But, hey...I guess that stuff is all in good fun.
     
  9. Rooksd1

    Rooksd1 Member

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    We have already had 20 years of Bushes and Clintons can't we just move on. My .02
     
  10. buzzgun

    buzzgun Member

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    Nope - guess not!
     
  11. Barry C. Roach

    Barry C. Roach Well-Known Member

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    Grammy was the inspiration for Dale Dribble.
     
  12. Barry C. Roach

    Barry C. Roach Well-Known Member

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    Hilary will never be the president.
     
  13. buzzgun

    buzzgun Member

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    Hope you're right, Barry...but we need that subway train to make sure.
     
  14. grammie

    grammie TS Member

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    You should never,,ever discount the improbable,,for it is then the improbable becomes reality!!!!!!!

    Most on this sight do not even understand that Manderin Chinese is the language of choice for a majority of the entire worlds population!!!!!!

    Most on this sight do not understand the wave of humanity who think the Dems offer something better than extended war,,,,and that fact alone,,by itself would get a person elected!!!!! Not to mention the "other" factors involved!!!

    But then again,,most on this sight cannot connect dots that form a straight line!!!!!

    AKA Grammie...........
     
  15. willing

    willing Member

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    Grammie
    But then most on this SITE can sell and punctuate. And we take our meds.

    Bill
     
  16. grammie

    grammie TS Member

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    Bill:

    As too the 'meds',,,I take your word for it!!! For I do not indulge in either meds or distilled spirts or hops

    As for the 'selling',,,or was it "spelling" that seems to offend???

    AKA Grammie.......
     
  17. ftlupton

    ftlupton TS Member

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    If you follow the Mayans, Nostrodomus and I Ching the year 2012 is the end of mankind as we know it. Strange that all three, who had no contact with each other predict the same year for the end. I predict Hillary will be elected and we will spend the next 4 to 8 years in a constant political battle. I need a drink!
    ftlupton
     
  18. Hipshot 3

    Hipshot 3 TS Member

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    I think everybody needs to take some medication and stop getting so excited. If you want to know who the next President is going to be all you need to do is ask Lumper! Geez!
     
  19. buzzgun

    buzzgun Member

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    Here it comes...Hillary as President, and people like Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee setting themselves up to be the next Rush Limbaugh radio hosts, so they can cash in on the anti-Hillary sentiment that will be so strong once she enters office.


    "Folks, I tried to warn everyone back when I was running for the Republican nomination, so I could have prevented her from doing this...blah blah, now pause for this message from our sponsors..."
     
  20. alfermann66

    alfermann66 Member

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    Buzzgun, the answers to most of those questions are subjective, so they are about as reliable as the predictions of Nostradamus.

    Buz
     
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